Fearless Oscar predictions 2019

Well, I can at least guarantee you that none of these predictions will be played during the commercial break.

I'm not sure whats up at the ol' Academy of Motion Pictures Arts & Sciences lately. They've grown rather flip-floppy. A while back they announced they would add another category for best popular film -- a brazen attempt to curry mainstream favor by giving out nominations to blockbuster hits. Quickly dubbed the "Black Panther Award," it was wisely withdrawn.

Then Kevin Hart was tapped as host, then he wasn't, then maybe he was again, and now there will be no host at all.

Finally, barely more than a week out from the festivities, the Academy said they planned to give out four awards during the commercial breaks -- including cinematography. Ludicrous. Outside of the director and screenwriter, the director of photography is (not really) arguably the most important member of the creative team.

Again, wiser heads prevailed... begging the question of where they were to begin with.

So here are my annual picks and predictions for the Oscars. As always, I provide my prediction of who will win, and my pick of who I think should win. And, in a tradition I think is unrivaled for pure chutzpah, I cross out the names of some nominees who I deem undeserving and replace them with better candidates -- the dreaded (and desperately in need of a © mark) "Chris Cross."

Best Picture

The Nominees: 
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”

The Chatter: I'm sad to say this year has become a "Roma" train, and nothing's going to slow it down. Three top rivals -- "A Star Is Born," "Green Book" and "Bohemian Rhapsody" -- have all faced backlash campaigns.

For "Star," I think there's an anti-Lady Gaga resentment out there. Hollywood likes for stars to stay in their lane. Don't try to be the biggest singer in the world and a movie star, too, goes the thinking.

"Rhapsody" exaggerated the extent to which the members of Queen were estranged from each other and moved up the year when Freddie Mercury found out he had AIDS. Pretty standard historical fudging, by Hollywood standards.

The criticism of "Green Book" is less coherent. First it was a "magical Negro movie," then it was a "white savior movie," then director Peter Farrelly got #MeToo'd for showing his wang on the sets of his gross-out comedies in the '90s, then co-star Viggo Mortensen said the n-word during the press tour, then the co-screenwriter (the real-life son of Viggo's character) retweeted something he wasn't supposed to, then Don Shirley's family resented the movie's implication they weren't very close. (Hint: Shirley said so himself.)

It was my favorite movie of the year, and I'm confused and vexed by the attacks on it. The film is like an actual screen -- people are projecting their own biases and distortions on it instead of judging the movie for what it is. It's the ultimate irony for a story all about individuals growing beyond their own bubble.

My thoughts on "Roma" are known -- it's the sort of movie critics and other filmmakers love and audiences have to endure. The first hour is pure death, and the character of the maid never gets any kind of interior.

Still, if there's a stalking horse, it's "Green Book." The film's treatment has been so unfair, there's a bit of a backlash building against the backlash. Plus industry people are a bit worried about giving their top prize to a streaming service movie that got a barely-there theatrical run.

"Vice" is an unabashed hatchet job that tries to steal the M.O. of "The Big Short" but forgets to be funny. "Black Panther" is, at best, the third-best superhero movie of 2018. “BlacKkKlansman” is Spike Lee's best movie in a decade but doesn't deserve a spot alongside "Malcolm X" and "Do the Right Thing." Lots of better choices out there.

Prediction: "Roma"

Pick: "Green Book"

Chris Cross: I'll replace "Vice," "BlacKkKlansman," "Roma" and "Black Panther" with "The Hate U Give," "Avengers: Infinity War," "The Wife" and "Cold War."

Best Actress

The Nominees: 
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

The Chatter: I'm glad to say Glenn Close has this thing locked up, as she should. The Best Actress award has historically favored young ingenues, whereas Best Actor has a tradition of "it's his time." This year Hollywood is aching to give glory to an actress who's been very good for a very long time, nominated for six Oscars prior without winning.

Plus, she's simply the best. "The Wife" is a masterful performance, one mask inside another.

Lady Gaga was solid, deserves the nomination but not the award. It's hard to believe the most famous person in the world as a nobody, and she convinced me. Melissa McCarthy was terrific in a career-changing turn few people actually saw.

I'm embarrassed by the inclusion of Olivia Colman and Yalitza Aparicio. The former, because it's clearly a supporting performance and this rampant category-hopping has got to stop somewhere. The latter, because she's a non-actress and it shows.

Prediction: Glenn Close

Pick: Glenn Close

Chris Cross: I'll replace Yalitza Aparicio and Olivia Colman with Rachel Weisz -- from "Disobedience," not "The Favourite" -- and Nicole Kidman from "Destroyer."

Best Actor

The Nominees: 
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

The Chatter: This one appears to be Christian Bale's to lose, and I'm fine with that despite my overall distaste for "Vice." It's such a mesmerizing transformation that after a few minutes you don't even question that it's Dick Cheney. The look, the speech, the mannerisms -- spot on.

Plus, Hollywood loves nothing more than to demonize a Republican.

Personally I'll take Bradley Cooper. I thought he gave a very subtle, heartfelt performance as a man who everyone thought had it all, but felt empty and lost inside. A close third would be Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury -- someone I would've called inimitable until Malek did it. He's been courting aggressively on the awards circuit, so he could sneak in with a win.

Mortensen was great, though Mahershala Ali was a co-equal lead -- I think relegating him to the supporting category is part of the grievance against "Green Book." I was glad to see Willem Dafoe sneak in for the tiny, lovely "At Eternity's Gate."

Hard to knock anyone out of a very deserving field, though I would've liked to see Ethan Hawke recognized for "First Reformed." He's in the midst of the richest part of his acting career, though in smaller films few people see.


Prediction: Christian Bale

Pick: Bradley Cooper

Chris Cross: I'll replace Dafoe with Hawke. I'd also like to see Jason Clarke from "Chappaquiddick," but I can't find a spot for him.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: 
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

The Chatter: The ridiculousness of having Emma Stone, the main character in "The Favourite," in this category is galling. You could make an argument that Weisz is a supporting performance -- I'd swing against it, but it's a reasonable position. But calling Stone's character anything other than the protagonist is a strike against credulity.

But it's become a favored tactic, campaigning for the lower category for a better shot at winning, and one that's worked. See: Viola Davis in "Fences."

Regina King will win, and deserves to. She's the best thing about "If Beale Street Could Talk," a gorgeous film whose two main characters don't really connect with the audience.

Prediction: Regina King

Pick: Regina King

Chris Cross: I'll replace Amy Adams and Marina de Tavira with Nicole Kidman from "Boy Erased" and Olivia Colman, putting her where she belongs.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: 
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

The Chatter: Historically this has been one of the most competitive categories, but the field is a little thin this year. Mahershala Ali has nearly run the table on the preliminary awards and seems slated for another win. I still think it's a leading performance, but he was put here because the studio doesn't want him to compete with his co-star, Mortensen.

Richard E. Grant was also very good, so I'd dub him the closest competition. I'll take him as my pick as the best of the actual supporting performances. I'm a big Sam Elliott fan and think he got screwed last year for "The Hero," but he only really has one substantive scene in "A Star Is Born."

The one nomination here that really rubs me the wrong way is Sam Rockwell. He was doing a "Saturday Night Live"-level impersonation of George W. Bush, played for broad laughs. Steve Carell had a much meatier part, and made the most of it, in the same movie.

Ironically, the one actor I really wanted to see here was Jonah Hill. He's received a couple of nominations I don't think he deserved, and then he pulled out a real humdinger in a non-comedic role in "Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot." Can't wait to see what he does next.

Prediction: Mahershala Ali

Pick: Richard E. Grant

Chris Cross: I'll replace Mahershala Ali, Sam Rockwell and Sam Elliott with Jonah Hill, Steve Carell and Russell Hornsby from "The Hate U Give."

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees: 
“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay

The Chatter: This category could go any which way. Typically original screenplay has been used to recognize a small film by up-and-comers. None of the nominees really fit that mold. "Eighth Grade" would be a prototypical winner, and took the Writers Guild Award, but it's not even nominated here.

If you can believe it, this is the first Oscar nomination for the 72-year-old Schrader, the scribe behind "Taxi Driver," "Raging Bull" and other iconic films. I'd love to see him win, but "First Reformed" is a pretty out-there choice. The last act probably seems bonkers on paper, but I think it rings emotionally true.

Nick Vallelonga of "Green Book" has been tainted for retweeting Trump, so that's out. Cuarón is going to win at least three Oscars already -- Best Picture, Best Foreign Language film and Best Director -- so Academy voters will be tempted to spread the love. Plus, there's about a page-and-a-half of actual story there.

"The Favourite" would be the safest choice, a period costume drama. But it has a lesbian angle, so that will be enough to make it an edgy choice. I think it's 9/10ths of a great script that failed to stick the landing. It doesn't end, it just stops.

Prediction: "The Favourite"

Pick: "First Reformed"

Chris Cross: I'll replace "Vice" and "Roma" with "Chappaquiddick" and "Sorry to Bother You."

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees: 
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

The Chatter: "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" was a surprise winner at the WGAs, so it's got a shot. It's a terrific tale -- the blackest sort of comedy. I think people like "Beale Street" but recognize it's not as good as "Moonlight."

There seems to be a real effort to praise Spike Lee. He's not going to win best director so people want to see him win somewhere else. He's been in the wilderness for the last 20 years after a strong career start, so I think he has a good shot.

Normally I'd say "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" has the Netflix taint, but it doesn't seem to be hurting "Roma."

For my pick it comes down to "Forgive Me" and "A Star Is Born." I could swing either way, so let's.

Prediction: "BlacKkKlansman"

Pick: "A Star Is Born"

Chris Cross: I'll replace "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs," "BlacKkKlansman" and "If Beale Street Could Talk" with "The Wife," "The Hate U Give" and "Love, Simon."

Best Director

The Nominees: 
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Adam McKay, “Vice”

The Chatter: I've pointed this out in other venues, but if Cuarón wins as expected, it would mark nine out of the last 10 times the best director award has been a person of color, a woman or a foreign-born person. Take that, diversity mavens.

Cuarón has run the table on the other awards, including the Directors Guild Award, which is so predictive it's easier to count the number of times the DGA winner didn't take the Oscar than did.

I'm not a big fan of this field. I loved seeing my favorite foreign language film, "Cold War," being recognized here and in cinematography. But I wouldn't have kicked out Bradley Cooper for his slot.

Yorgos Lanthimos, the king of kooky auteur projects, was brought in as a hired hand for "The Favourite" and mostly contained his penchant for excesses, other than a few fish-eye lens shots. McKay's "Vice" never could see around the writer/director's bile to tell a real story.

For my money, the best directed movie of the year was Debra Granik's "Leave No Trace," a film of pure stillness and empathy.

Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón

Pick: Pawel Pawlikowski

Chris Cross: Screw it. I'll kick the whole field and swap them out with Peter Farrelly for "Green Book," Bryan Singer (and the guy who finished the film) for "Bohemian Rhapsody," George Tillman Jr. for "The Hate U Give," Debra Granik for "Leave No Trace" and Bradley Cooper for "A Star Is Born."

Best Documentary Feature

The Nominees: 
“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen

The Chatter: I haven't seen "Hale County" or "Of Fathers and Sons." "RBG" was my favorite doc. I also really liked "Shirkers." Despite the outcry, I don't mind seeing "Won't You Be My Neighbor?" left off this list -- like Mr. Rogers and his show, I found it nice, and a little dull. "Free Solo" has a strong shot to win, though I found it hard to connect with its subject, a witless man/child who risks his life for no reason.

Prediction: "RBG"

Pick: "RBG"

Chris Cross: Trade the rambling "Minding the Gap" for "Shirkers."

Best Documentary Short

The Nominees: 
“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins
“End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald
“A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry
“Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi

The Chatter: I didn't get to see any of these this year. The only one I hear buzz about is "Black Sheep."

Prediction: "Black Sheep"

Best Animated Feature

The Nominees: 
“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird
“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson
“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda
“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman

The Chatter: Could this be the year the non-Disney or -Pixar film actually wins? They've taken the prize 10 out of the last 11 years and their two entries are both subpar sequels.

The animated feature game has been lackluster for a few years now. They really struggle to fill out this category with five worthy nominees.

Prediction: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

Pick: "Isle of Dogs"

Chris Cross: I don't have replacements, but neither "Ralph Breaks the Internet" or "Incredibles 2" deserves to be here.

Best Animated Short

The Nominees: 
“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine
“Bao,” Domee Shi
“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall
“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez

The Chatter:Disney/Pixar almost always runs the table in this category.
 
Prediction: "Bao"

Pick: “One Small Step"

Best Live Action Short

The Nominees: 
“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe
“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte
“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley
“Madre,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen
“Skin,” Guy Nattiv

Prediction: "Madre"

Pick:"Skin"

Best Foreign Language Film

The Nominees: 
“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)
“Roma” (Mexico)
“Shoplifters” (Japan)

The Chatter: Other than ordained winner "Roma," this is actually a really good list. "Cold War" is my favorite but I also adored "Shoplifters" and "Capernaum." There's a slight chance "Cold War" could win since "Roma" is going to collect bigger prizes.

Prediction: "Roma"

Pick: "Cold War"

Chris Cross: Let's translate "Roma" into "Let the Sunshine In."

Best Cinematography

The Nominees: 
“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique

The Chatter:  I won't deny the extraordinary beauty of "Roma," despite how I feel about it. Interesting to have four foreign films, including three foreign language ones, out of five.

Prediction: "Roma"

Pick: "Cold War"

Chris Cross: I'll stand pat with this list.

Best Film Editing

The Nominees: 
“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“Vice,” Hank Corwin

The Chatter: It's interesting that Alfonso Cuarón didn't get nominated here, since he edits his own films and previously won an Oscar for "Gravity." But there really isn't much editing in "Roma," which largely consists of long, panning shots.

Tough call here. None of these are action-oriented films that get a chance to show off fancy editing.

Prediction: "Vice"

Pick: “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Best Sound Editing

The Nominees: 
“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst
“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

The Chatter: Time for my annual primer on sound editing vs. sound mixing: sound editors are responsible for selecting or creating all the sounds you hear in a production, while a sound mixer assembles it all together. Editors do most of their work during production, while mixing is a post-production role. Don't feel bad if you don't understand the difference; most Academy voters don't, either.

Prediction: "First Man"

Pick: "Bohemian Rhapsody"

Best Sound Mixing

The Nominees: 
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First Man”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”

Prediction: "Bohemian Rhapsody"

Pick: "Bohemian Rhapsody"

Best Production Design

The Nominees: 
“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez

The Chatter: This category often comes down to science fiction vs. costume drama, and the latter usually wins.

Prediction: “The Favourite"

Pick: “Mary Poppins Returns"

Best Original Score

The Nominees: 
“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

The Chatter: I loved the weird, moving, atonal score for "If Beale Street Could Talk." I think Alexandre Desplat gets nominated every year; he's the new John Williams.

Prediction: “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Pick: “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Best Song

The Nominees: 
“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

The Chatter: The cowboy song from "Buster Scruggs" is oddly the most singable of the bunch. Lady Gaga seems destined to notch another letter on the way to her EGOT.

Prediction: "Shallow"

Pick: "Shallow"

Best Makeup and Hair

The Nominees: 
“Border”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Vice”

The Chatter: This usually goes to the biggest physical transformation, especially turning a lean, beautiful person into an old, fat one. Odd that "Stan & Ollie" didn't get a nod; John C. Reilly's transformation was at least as impressive as Christian Bale's, and he didn't even gain weight for the role.

Prediction: "Vice"

Pick: "Vice"

Chris Cross: Only three nominees here so no need to cross anyone out to add "Stan & Ollie."

Best Costume Design

The Nominees: 
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres
“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter
“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell
“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne


Prediction: "The Favourite"

Pick: "Mary Queen of Scots"

Best Visual Effects

The Nominees: 
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”

The Chatter: The best superhero flick of the year will get its due.

Prediction: “Avengers: Infinity War”

Pick: “Avengers: Infinity War”

Fearless Oscar predictions 2018

2017 was a big year for small movies.

Most of my favorite pictures were independent films, several of them so tiny -- "Brigsby Bear," "Patti Cake$" -- they barely made a ripple in box office or cultural terms. And it's not just me: Only two of the nine movies nominated by the Academy Award for Best Picture were huge box office hits, "Dunkirk" and "Get Out," and neither seem to be in the running to win.

Personally, I'm not a big fan of Oscar years with one runaway favorite gobbling up most of the awards. The best overall film may not necessarily have the best performances, costumes or sound design. Give the statue to the people who actually deserve it most, I say.

Without further ado, here are my fearless Oscar predictions in all 24 categories. As in previous years, I provide my prediction of who will win, and my pick of who I think should win. And I will also cross out the names of some of the nominees who I think are undeserving, and replace them with better candidates -- the much-feared "Chris Cross."

Best Picture

The Nominees: 
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” 

The Chatter: This awards cycle has been all over the map, with "Three Billboards" an early favorite to win, "Lady Bird" faltering after a strong start and "The Shape of Water" making a late surge. "Dunkirk" and "The Post" have the classic Oscar pedigree -- splashy historical pieces -- but seem destined to be overlooked. "Get Out" has a populist puncher's chance.

The fact that "Three Billboards" didn't get a directing nomination likely dooms its chances, as only a handful of films have won Best Picture without their director also getting a nod. Also, there's been an odd backlash against the film because it allows the racist cop played by Sam Rockwell to find a measure of redemption.

My favorite film of the year, "Blade Runner 2049," didn't make the list, so I'll take my #2, "Lady Bird," with the pick. I think there's a slight chance it could slip in for a win, with the #MeToo movement lending credence to a film that's very much a women's story. But "Water" has made a strong showing in the preliminary awards, including the predictive Producers Guild Awards, and seems poised for a win.

For the Chris Cross, I liked "Get Out" and "Darkest Hour," but I can easily find strong nominees. The tiresome "Phantom Thread" will be forgotten within five years, when Daniel Day-Lewis unretires because he doesn't want to go out on such a sour note. 

Prediction: "The Shape of Water"

Pick: "Lady Bird"

Chris Cross: I'll replace "Darkest Hour," "Get Out," and "Phantom Thread" with "Blade Runner 2049," "The Florida Project" and "Maudie."

Best Actress

The Nominees: 
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

The Chatter: Frances McDormand seems destined for a win -- indeed, this is the weird year where all four acting categories appear to be locked up tight. So that would point toward chances of at least one Mark Rylance-style upset.

I'm fine with with a win for McDormand, who is so strong and true, in a role that never softens her character's edges in a play for sympathy. If Sally Hawkins was nominated for "Maudie" instead of "The Shape of Water," she'd be my pick. She's still the stalking horse, with Saoirse Ronan having a puncher's chance.

Prediction: Frances McDormand

Pick: Frances McDormand

Chris Cross: I'll replace Margot Robbie with Danielle Mcdonald from the little-scene "Patti Cake$."

Best Actor

The Nominees: 
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

The Chatter: I'm not a fan of this roster of nominees, with only seemingly certain winner Gary Oldman truly belonging here. There were so many stronger nominees out there. I liked Timothée Chalamet, but the movie takes almost 80 minutes to really get rolling and give him something to do. "Get Out" was buoyed more by the storytelling than Daniel Kaluuya's acting, which was fine but nothing extraordinary.

The nominations for Washington and Day-Lewis are classic Oscar favoritism for past winners, in films that audiences completely ignored. I'm pretty astonished that Sam Elliott got shut out for his career-capper in "The Hero."

Prediction: Gary Oldman

Pick: Gary Oldman

Chris Cross: I'll replace Chalamet, Day-Lewis, Kaluuya and Washington with Jake Gyllenhaal from "Stronger," Lakeith Stanfield from "Crown Heights," James Franco from "The Disaster Artist" and Elliott.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: 
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

The Chatter: Again, this award seems wrapped up with Allison Janney sweeping the preliminaries. That's a pity, because while she's certainly fine, it's pretty much a one-note comic relief role. Her hateful mother shows up occasionally, spouts insults and snappy one-liners, and exits stage right.

Laurie Metcalf is the obvious pick, also playing a seemingly troublesome mother to an uppity teen daughter in "Lady Bird." But she gets to show so many other notes and depths. A truly astonishing performance.

A bit of a weak category this year, so Mary J. Blige is the only one I'd knock out. She was fine, but none of the characters made a real impact on me from the overrated "Mudbound."

Prediction: Allison Janney

Pick: Laurie Metcalf

Chris Cross: I'll replace Blige with Holly Hunter from "The Big Sick."

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: 
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

The Chatter: I was surprised and thrilled when Woody Harrelson got nominated along with is "Three Billboards" co-star Sam Rockwell, the likely winner. He hadn't appeared anywhere in the preliminary awards and hype, so I thought voters were sure to overlook his magnificent performance as the flawed, doomed police chief. If McDormand is the heart of that movie, Woody is the soul.

I liked Rockwell fine, but as written his part is 90% caricature, with a little bit of movement at the very end. His journey seems abrupt rather than experiential. 

You could easily have nominated most of the male cast from "The Shape of Water" here. I loved how that film explored the journeys of its supporting characters. People complained about Michael Stuhlbarg being left off this list for his performance as the dad in "Call Me By Your Name," but it was a pretty pedestrian role as scripted, with one lovely speech tacked on. His character is much richer in "Water."

If Rockwell doesn't win, Willem Dafoe could sneak in for his part as the motel manager in "The Florida Project." He's the cantankerous hero of the piece.

Prediction: Sam Rockwell

Pick: Tie between Willem Dafoe and Woody Harrelson

Chris Cross: Tough call in an always-busy category. I wish there were space for 15 nominees. I can't in good conscious knock out any of these fine actors, but I would've loved to have seen nods for:

• Michael Stuhlbarg, "The Shape of Water"
• Michael Shannon, "The Shape of Water"
• Doug Jones, "The Shape of Water"
• Peter Dinklage, "Three Billboards"
• Nnamdi Asomugha, "Crown Heights" 
• Mamoudou Athie, "Patti Cake$"
• Ethan Hawke, “Maudie”
• Tracy Letts, “Lady Bird”
• Peter Mullan, “Tommy’s Honour”
• Ray Romano, "The Big Sick"
• Sebastian Stan, “I, Tonya”

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees: 
“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

The Chatter: This one seems to be a battle between young newcomers: Greta Gerwig of "Lady Bird" and Jordan Peele of "Get Out." The Academy loves to use the screenplay categories to award fresh faces -- Ben Affleck and Matt Damon for "Good Will Hunting" being the classic example -- and here they're faced with not too but three choices to fit the bill, the third being "The Big Sick" written by a real-life married couple.

Plus, if we want to bring in political considerations, it's a contest between #MeToo and #OscarsSoWhite. Which sympathy chord will sound the loudest?

I think "Get Out" will win, largely due its huge box office and assertions that it touched the cultural zeitgeist like no other movie last year. I admired the movie but never really connected with its themes, which still remain jumbled to my mind's eye. (Rich, white liberals hate black people so much they secretly want to be them?)

Prediction: "Get Out"

Pick: "Lady Bird"

Chris Cross: I'll knock out "The Big Sick" and "Get Out" in favor of "Patti Cake$" and "Baby Driver."

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees: 
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

The Chatter: An extraordinarily weak roster of nominees. "Mudbound" and "Call Me By Your Name" ramble on and on, "The Disaster Artist" never really gets past the joke of its lead performance, and "Molly's Game" feels like TV to me. I liked "Logan" well enough, but if you want to nominate a superhero script, how about "Wonder Woman?"

James Ivory seems the favorite, and at age 89 would become the Academy's oldest winner. For me, he seemed to be writing for quantity rather than quality. Too. Damn. Long.

Prediction: "Call Me By Your Name"

Pick: "Logan"

Chris Cross: My instinct is to replace the entire lineup, but I can only identify three worthy replacements: "Wonder Woman," "Blade Runner 2049" and "Stronger" for "Call Me," "Mudbound" and "Molly's Game."

Best Director

The Nominees: 
“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

The Chatter: Say what you will about the diversity of the Academy Awards. But if Guillermo del Toro wins Best Director as expected, that will mark five out of the last six years the statue has gone to a POC/minority.

For the kids, Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig, the nomination is the award. Lots of big OWM (old white male) names were excluded to get them their spots: Steven Spielberg, Martin McDonagh, Denis Villeneuve, Darren Aronofsky, Joe Wright; as well as some older female directors: Patty Jenkins, Kathryn Bigelow.

Gerwig is my pick. She spent a decade acting in indies, moving up to more mainstream films, apprenticing as a co-screenwriter, and steps into the director's chair with one of the most assured debuts I've ever seen. It's amazing how mature a work "Lady Bird" is, the sort of picture most directors spend a couple or three decades making movies to have a shot at.

I run hot and cold on del Toro, but "The Shape of Water" is probably my second favorite film of his after "Pan's Labyrinth." So I have no quarrel with him taking home of the statue as expected. He won the Director's Guild award, which has only failed to pick the winner on a handful of occasions.

Shockingly, this is the first time Christopher Nolan has been nominated as a director. He's widely regarded as one of the most important filmmakers of the last 20 years. So he has a shot to play the spoiler.

Prediction: Guillermo del Toro

Pick: Greta Gerwig

Chris Cross: Goodbye to Peele and Anderson; hello to Jenkins and Villeneuve.

Best Documentary Feature

The Nominees: 
“Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman
“Faces Places,” JR, Agnès Varda, Rosalie Varda
“Icarus,” Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan
“Last Men in Aleppo,” Feras Fayyad, Kareem Abeed, Soren Steen Jepersen
“Strong Island,” Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes

The Chatter: A strong roster of nominees, with only the disjointed "Icarus" about Russian doping at the Olympics failing to make a strong impression on me. "Strong Island" made a very large impact, as a woman stares balefully into the camera and demands to know why her brother's killer has not been brought to justice after two decades.

The Academy has some pretty kooky procedures on what gets nominated in this category, so there's always a lot of outcry over snubs. Most people thought "Jane" was the front-runner. My favorite doc of the year was "Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992," which explores racial unrest in LA in the decade leading up to Rodney King. Both were overlooked.

"Faces Places," about two French artists touring the country, is the extremely rare documentary that's actually an upbeat people-pleaser, and many are predicting it to win.

Prediction: "Faces Places"

Pick: "Strong Island"

Chris Cross: Trade "Icarus" for "Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992."

Best Documentary Short

The Nominees: 
“Edith+Eddie,” Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405,” Frank Stiefel
“Heroin(e),” Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin Sheldon“Knife Skills,” Thomas Lennon“Traffic Stop,” Kate Davis, David Heilbroner

The Chatter: Tough category to predict. My favorite was "Heroin(e)," which lionizes a trio of women fighting the epidemic of opiod deaths in their small town: the fire chief, the drug court judge and a faith-based shelter worker. My second pick is "Traffic Stop," about how a black woman's life was changed by a simple traffic violation that turned into a violent example of police brutality.

Prediction: "Heroin(e)"

Pick: "Traffic Stop"

Best Animated Feature

The Nominees: 
“The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
“The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
“Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
“Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha
“Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman

The Chatter: A weak year for animation, with the Pixar/Disney production destined, and deserving, to win. "Ferdinand" was a close second, and it's a pity more people didn't go see it. There's a chance "The Breadwinner," about a girl posing as a boy to support her family during the reign of the Taliban, could sneak in.

Prediction: "Coco"

Pick: "Coco"

Chris Cross: I don't have anything to replace it with, but "The Boss Baby" doesn't deserve to be here.

Best Animated Short

The Nominees: 
“Dear Basketball,” Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant
“Garden Party,” Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon
“Lou,” Dave Mullins, Dana Murray
“Negative Space,” Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata
“Revolting Rhymes,” Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer

The Chatter: The Disney/Pixar short pretty much always wins. "Dear Basketball" is a surprisingly emotive soliloquy by Kobe Bryant about his basketball career. 

Prediction: "Lou"

Pick: “Dear Basketball”

Best Live Action Short

The Nominees: 
“DeKalb Elementary,” Reed Van Dyk
“The Eleven O’Clock,” Derin Seale, Josh Lawson
“My Nephew Emmett,” Kevin Wilson, Jr.
“The Silent Child,” Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton
“Watu Wote/All of Us,” Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen

The Chatter: A very good pick of five. If the Academy leans toward comedy, it'll go with "The Eleven O'Clock." But the Academy rarely leans toward comedy.

Prediction: "Watu Wote"

Pick:"My Nephew Emmett"

Best Foreign Language Film

The Nominees: 
“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)
“The Insult” (Lebanon)
“Loveless” (Russia)
“On Body and Soul" (Hungary)
“The Square” (Sweden)

The Chatter: I'm not sure how Angelina Jolie's "First They Killed My Father" got left off this list. Ditto for the German "In the Fade," which many had considered the front-runner to win. Personally, I'm glad for the exclusion of "Thelma" and "BPM (Beats Per Minute)," both of which I thought egregiously overrated.

I think the transgender story of "A Fantastic Woman" will resonate with Academy voters. I liked it but wasn't blown away by it. I'll take the excellent "The Insult," the first nominee from Lebanon.

Prediction: "A Fantastic Woman"

Pick: "The Insult"

Chris Cross: Let's translate "Loveless" and "A Fantastic Woman" into "In the Fade" and "First They Killed My Father."

Best Cinematography

The Nominees: 
“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

The Chatter: The most important of the "technical" awards, as the cinematographer often holds the most sway over the success of a film apart from the director, writer and (sometimes) lead performers.

This is the 14th Oscar nomination for Roger Deakins, and if there's any justice in the world he will finally take home the statue. "Blade Runner 2049" was easily the most visually arresting film of the year. You could snip out almost any single frame of it, blow it up and put it on the wall of a major museum, and it would not look out of place.

But justice rarely holds sway in this category, which tends to follow on the heels of the Best Picture winner. So expect Dan Laustsen of "The Shape of Water" to win. That's also a darkly gorgeous film, so its triumph wouldn't be a travesty on the order of, say, "Glory" winning over "The Abyss."

It's depressing and shocking that it took 90 years for the Academy to bestow its first cinematography nomination to a woman. It's even more troubling that it's the single most undeserving nominee here, "Mudbound," an ugly-looking picture that seemed like it was shot with the titular substance spread across the lens.

Prediction: Dan Laustsen

Pick: Roger Deakins

Chris Cross: Swap "Mudbound" for "Three Billboards," and hope for more female DPs to get the chance to do better work.

Best Film Editing

The Nominees: 
“Baby Driver,” Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
“Dunkirk,” Lee Smith
“I, Tonya,” Tatiana S. Riegel
“The Shape of Water,” Sidney Wolinsky
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Jon Gregory

The Chatter: I think "Dunkirk" will do very well in the technical categories, as it's a genuine spectacle largely shot with practical effects rather than CGI. Fast-paced action films tend to do better here than dramas, so it's curious that "Shape" and "Three Billboards" got nods over, say, "Wonder Woman" and "Logan." 

Prediction: "Dunkirk"

Pick: "Dunkirk"

Best Sound Editing

The Nominees: 
“Baby Driver,” Julian Slater
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mark Mangini, Theo Green
“Dunkirk,” Alex Gibson, Richard King
“The Shape of Water,” Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood

The Chatter: Time for my annual primer on sound editing vs. sound mixing: sound editors are responsible for selecting or creating all the sounds you hear in a production, while a sound mixer assembles it all together. Editors do most of their work during production, while mixing is a post-production role. Don't feel bad if you don't understand the difference; most Academy voters don't, either.

Prediction: "Dunkirk"

Pick: "Dunkirk"

Best Sound Mixing

The Nominees: 
“Baby Driver,” Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
“Blade Runner 2049,” Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
“Dunkirk,” Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
“The Shape of Water,” Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick

The Chatter: Same list of nominated films results in the same pick/prediction. 

Prediction: "Dunkirk"

Pick: "Dunkirk"

Best Production Design

The Nominees: 
“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau

The Chatter: Another egregiously undervalued role is the production designer. Basically, anything you see onscreen that isn't an actor and their clothing, the production designer is responsible for creating. I'd call it a race between "Blade Runner 2049" and "Beauty and the Beast." Sequel trumps the remake.

Prediction: “Blade Runner 2049”

Pick: “Blade Runner 2049”

Best Original Score

The Nominees: 
“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer
“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood
“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell 

The Chatter: This award often follows the Best Picture winner, and in this case I think it's actually the most deserving. This is the gobsmacking 51st nomination for John Williams, who only needs eight more to tie the all-time leader, Walt Disney. 

Prediction: Alexandre Desplat

Pick: Alexandre Desplat

Chris Cross: Let's play over "Phantom Thread" to the sound of "A Ghost Story."

Best Song

The Nominees: 
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

The Chatter: Blige is the only person to ever be nominated for both Best Song and an acting category, and I think the allure will be too much for Academy voters to resist. And it's actually a good song. I slightly prefer the Broadway-esque "This Is Me." 

Prediction: "Mighty River"

Pick: "This Is Me"

Chris Cross: X

Best Makeup and Hair

The Nominees: 
“Darkest Hour,” Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
“Victoria and Abdul,” Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
“Wonder,” Arjen Tuiten

The Chatter: How in the hell did "The Shape of Water" not get nominated here? A large part of that film's success was due to the humanity behind the outward appearance of Doug Jones as the aquatic man. I admired the facial transformation of Jacob Tremblay in "Wonder," but "Darkest Hour" reworked Gary Oldman from head to toe, and convincingly.

Prediction: "The Darkest Hour"

Pick: "The Darkest Hour"

Chris Cross: Aging Judi Dench is not much of a challenge; adieu to "Victoria and Abdul" and say hello to "The Shape of Water."

Best Costume Design

The Nominees: 
“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran
“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran
“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges
“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira
“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle

The Chatter: This is a category I always seem to get wrong. Clothes were very much at the center of the story for "Phantom Thread," so it might pull off a win. Judi Dench's magisterial outfits were stunning and complex. The bright colors of "Beauty and the Beast" have a real chance. Roll the dice.

Prediction: "Beauty and the Beast"

Pick: "Victoria and Abdul"

Best Visual Effects

The Nominees: 
“Blade Runner 2049,” John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
“Kong: Skull Island,” Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,”  Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlan
“War for the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist

The Chatter: My first instinct was to ask, "Where's 'Dunkirk?'" But then I remembered Nolan & Co. mostly used practical effects, which is an achievement unto itself. The simian flicks, "Kong" and "Apes," both underperformed at the box office, so they're probably out. Call it a coin toss between "Star Wars" and "Guardians." As I said I adore the look of "Blade Runner 2049," but it has a more painterly feel in a category dominated by action movies. 

Prediction: “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”

Pick: "Blade Runner 2049,"

Fearless Oscar predictions and picks: 2015

I've said it before and I will say it again with Rubio-like constancy: 2015 will go down as one of the all-time great years in cinema. It's only appropriate, then, that the race for the Academy Award for Best Picture is one of the most contentious and unpredictable in decades.

Usually by now a portrait emerges: a clear favorite, its chief competition and a dark horse or two. The clear favorite nearly always wins, the last big upset coming for 1999 when "Shakespeare in Love" beat "Saving Private Ryan." (While "Crash" from 2006 was a clear mistake, I'm not sure how popular deserving winner "Brokeback Mountain" really was among Academy voters.)

This time around, the picture is as clear as mud.

Based on the preliminary awards, it's a three-way race between "The Revenant," "Spotlight" and "The Big Short." All three arrive with the credentials to be called a front-runner.

The result? Utter, glorious higgledy-piggledy.

So here are my predictions for the winners in all 24 categories. (Hey, you can't call yourself a true Oscar prognosticator unless you're willing to make a pick for Best Black and White Costume Short.)

As always, not only will I tell you who think will win and who should win, I'll gleefully toss out some of the nominees in favor of more deserving ones, in a soon-to-be hallowed tradition I call the "Chris Cross."

Best Picture

"The Revenant" won the Golden Globe for drama (with non-Oscar-contender "The Martian" ludicrously taking the comedy award), BAFTA best film and, most significantly, Directors Guild award. Director and co-writer Alejandro González Iñárritu has the gloss of prestige as last year's Oscar winner. A repeat would be historic, only the third time a director has won back-to-back awards and the first in 65 years.

"Spotlight" got the Screen Actors Guild award for best cast -- their equivalent of best picture -- the Writers Guild award for drama and the top award from the Broadcast Film Critics Association. (Including my ballot as a first-time voting member.) Plus the endorsement of many regional film critic groups, including the Indiana Film Journalists Association. (I'm everywhere!)

Coming in strong at the end of the race is "The Big Short," directed by goofball comic filmmaker Adam McKay, which shocked many with a win from the Producers Guild, which historically has been one of the best predictors of the Oscar winner. It also took the Writers Guild award for comedy.

Like I said, it's a tough call. I'm going to throw out "Big Short," more or less on gut feeling. It just doesn't have that shiny patina of a Best Pic. On paper "Revenant" seems to have the edge -- it's got "prestige picture" written all over it, and a solid pedigree of previous Oscar nominees and winners.

But there's a backlash growing against "Revenant." A lot of people feel it's too violent and overpraised. There was also a sizeable contingent in Hollywood who thought "Birdman" was similarly overblown -- my hand goes up! -- and don't like to dole out golden statuettes haphazardly.

So I predict "Spotlight" will eke out a win.

For the Chris Cross, I don't feel that any of the eight nominees are truly undeserving. All made my list of the best films of the year -- just much lower down.

Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Spotlight
Chris Cross: The End of the Tour, Love & Mercy, Mr. Holmes and Steve Jobs replace Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Martian and The Revenant.

Director

Iñárritu won the DGA award, which is usually the Oscar winner, so he has to be called the front-runner. Tom McCarthy of "Spotlight" and Lenny Abrahamson of "Room" are low-profile filmmakers without a lot of credits under their belt. Adam McKay has been known for gross-out comedies, often starring Will Ferrell, and that will hurt him. So the only real competition is George Miller.

I would give it to Miller. More than any film, "Mad Max: Fury Road" represents one artist's singular vision. The Aussie revived a nearly 40-year-old franchise with a new actor and then went one better and centered the story around another (female) character. Bold, visionary filmmaking.

Miller is hurt by the fact that his film falls into the action/adventure mold, and those do not fare well in the awards.

If Iñárritu prevails he would join Joseph L. Mankiewicz and John Ford as the only directors to win back-to-back Oscars. That's pretty rarefied country, and I think voters will take a hard look at "The Revenant" and "Birdman" and ask if those are films that really deserve to go down as all-time greats.

Will Win: George Miller
Should Win: George Miller
Chris Cross: Tough call, but I will knock out Iñárritu for James Ponsoldt of "The End of the Tour," a criminally overlooked film. Ridley Scott deserved a nom, too, but not sure who I'd cross out.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

The screenplay categories are where the Academy likes to reward smaller films that don't have a shot at winning Best Picture. So whichever category doesn't have the Best Pic winner is the one where they can "spread the love." Since I think "Spotlight" will win Best Picture, it will likely win the Original Screenplay category.

The favorite here is "The Big Short," which took a complex issue and melded it into a digestible, funny and infuriating take on the real estate bubble. It also won the WGA award, so it's the clear favorite.

Its main competition is "Room." While it's a wonderful film, #2 on my list of the year's best, I think its strength lies in its performances rather than the script. (Which does have a few minor problems, particularly in the second half with the William H. Macy character.)

Contrastingly, it's amazing to me that "Steve Jobs" and "The End of the Tour," both carefully constructed narratives, did not get nominations. Meanwhile, old-fashioned storytelling in "Brooklyn" and "Carol" was recognized.

It's important to note that "The Revenant" did not get a writing nod, which I think underscores the movie's weakness in the big race.

While Best Picture winners occasionally lack any acting nominations -- "Slumdog Millionaire" most recently -- it's rare for them to not be recognized for the screenplay. Only seven films have won Best Pic without a screenplay nod, and most of them were in the very early days of the Academy Awards. The most recent being "Titanic" in 1997 and "The Sound of Music" in 1965.

Will Win: The Big Short
Should Win: The Big Short
Chris Cross: The End of the Tour and Steve Jobs replace Brooklyn and Carol.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

One of the easiest calls of the night, for "Spotlight." It won the WGA award and could be the Best Picture. If it doesn't, then this is its make-up award.

Why no screenplay nom for "Mad Max: Fury Road?" Sure, there's not a lot of dialogue and there is a lot of action. But structure-wise it's just brilliant. And the characters are really distinctly written. It was a chase movie that built a whole world around it. Meanwhile, "Ex Machina" had an innovative starting concept and then made a lot of overly safe choices.

Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Spotlight
Chris Cross: Mad Max: Fury Road for Ex Machina.

Actress in a Leading Role

Brie Larson of "Room" has been one of Hollywood's best-kept secrets for a while, and she's all lined up to become her generation's Hilary Swank, winning this award at a young age for a tiny picture, which will hopefully boost her into the sort of roles that Jennifer Lawrence or Carey Mulligan are getting now. Those of us who caught "Short Term 12" a few years back saw this day coming.

Her main competition is Cate Blanchett, a former winner with a great pedigree. Charlotte Rampling was a sentimental choice in a movie hardly anyone saw. "Joy" underperformed in box office and critical praise, so J. Law is probably on the sidelines this time. "Carol" got a lot of early buzz before anyone saw it, then they saw it, and the buzz died down.

Maggie Smith of "The Lady in the Van" and Charlize Theron of "Mad Max: Fury Road" deserved nods.

Will Win: Brie Larson
Should Win: Brie Larson
Chris Cross: The commanding Charlize Theron and the sublime Maggie Smith knock out Jennifer Lawrence and Cate Blanchett.

 

Actress in a Supporting Role

A busy category with no clear favorite. Kate Winslet would seem to be the front-runner, as a past multiple nominee and winner, and she was great in "Steve Jobs." And she took the Golden Globe. But Alicia Vikander won the Screen Actors Guild Award and seems to have the late momentum. Of course, hers was clearly a leading role, but we're used to shenanigans in category hopping by now. That could help and hurt her.

Coin flip. Most of the prognosticators are picking Vikander. I'll take the load less traveled and say Winslet.

My choice would be Rachel McAdams, who shined in a non-showy role.

Will Win: Kate Winslet
Should Win: Rachel McAdams
Chris Cross: Elizabeth Banks centered "Love &  Mercy," while Rooney Mara contributed to the overwrought snoozefest that is "Carol."

Actor in a Leading Role

Another easy call. Leonardo DiCaprio has been Hollywood royalty for two-plus decades. He's been nominated five times without winning, and probably had at least a couple other times he should've been. He's run the the table on the preliminary awards and seems to have this locked up. Like Paul Newman, he'll win not for the finest performance of his career but because "it's his time."

That's not a diss; Leo was indeed outstanding in "The Revenant," in a largely non-vocal role, which is a huge contrast to his filmography of fast talkers. Of those nominated, I would give the slight edge to Michael Fassbender, who played the myth rather than the man in "Steve Jobs."

My picks to win would be Jacob Tremblay of "Room" or Jason Segel for "The End of the Tour," but neither was nominated. Would've also loved to see nominations for Ian McKellen, Tom Hanks, Jesse Eisenberg, Paul Dano, Johnny Depp and Mark Ruffalo, but more love than nominations to go around.

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Chris Cross: Jacob Tremblay and Jason Segal replace Bryan Cranston and Eddie Redmayne.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nearly always the busiest category with the most number of snubs, and this year's no different. The lack of nominations for Idris Elba of "Beasts of No Nation" and Michael Shannon of "99 Homes" really, really grates. Their films don't work without them. Essentially, they're the subjects of their movies and the protagonist is the object.

You could've also put up Paul Giamatti twice, for playing musical Svengalis in "Straight Outta Compton" and "Love & Mercy." Also dissed were Michael Keaton, Steve Carell, John Cusack (arguably a leading role), and a few others.

Of those nominated, Sylvester Stallone appears to be the strong sentimental pick. Capping off a great career and all that (so long as you conveniently forget long stretches of it). Mark Rylance is big in theater and kind of anonymous in film, so I don't expect the actors' wing to vote for him in great numbers. Tom Hardy was good in "The Revenant" but it was possibly his fourth best performance of the year. (If you count "Legend" as two, and I do.)

I would say Mark Ruffalo is the stalking horse here. Very respected actor who shifts easily between indies, mainstream dramas and now big-budget spectacles. He would be my pick of those nominated.

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone
Should Win: Mark Ruffalo
Chris Cross: Steve Carell, Michael Shannon and Idris Elba edge out Christian Bale, Tom Hardy and Mark Rylance.

 

Animated Feature

Despite being an outstanding movie year, it was a rather weak one for animated films and comedies. Disney/Pixar is seen as having kicked themselves out of a moribund funk with "Inside Out," after years of sequels and cut-rate rehashes. For my money I slightly preferred the heartfelt "The Good Dinosaur," which wasn't nominated. Meanwhile, the fun but utterly forgettable "Shaun the Sheep Movie" was.

My fellow Indiana critic adored "Anomalisa," but I felt it was weird and quirky for he sake of being weird and quirky. I think Charlie Kaufman, like George Lucas, works better as an idea and story man who hands off the nuts and bolts elsewhere.

I haven't seen the two foreign nominated films -- virtually no one has -- so I can't assess their quality.

Will Win: Inside Out
Should Win: Inside Out
Chris Cross: The Good Dinosaur for Shaun the Sheep Movie.

Foreign Language Film

Historically a tough category to pick as most of the nominees typically don't make it to U.S. theaters until long after the Oscars have been given out. "Son of Saul" has made a strong showing in the preliminary awards, and made my top 10 list.

Will Win: Son of Saul
Should Win: Son of Saul

Documentary Feature

"Amy" has this one all locked up, and deserves to.

Will Win: Amy
Should Win: Amy

Documentary Short

 I haven't seen any of these.


Will Win: A Girl in the River: The Prince of Forgiveness

Short Film (Animated)

I adored "Bear Story," but most people are predicting the darkly (very darkly) comedic "World of Tomorrow."

Will Win: World of Tomorrow
Should Win: Bear Story

Short Film (Live Action)

A very clear standout here imho.

Will Win: Shok
Should Win: Shok

 

Cinematography

The most important of the "minor" awards. The way a film is photographed has a major impact on how we react to it emotionally and intellectually. Take a look at "Son of Saul" for a prime example. I also adored the hauntingly beautiful "The Martian" among the snubees.

"The Revenant" seems to have this one in the bag, due to the oft-cited difficulty of shooting in a natural setting with extreme climate. I will take "Mad Max: Fury Road" for its great, grainy look and practical camera effects.

I love to rag on "Carol," but it was indeed an exquisite-looking film; indeed, the thrust of my complaint is that it's a pretty box with nothing inside. Robert Richardson managed to be quite inventive inside a confined space... but 19/20ths of "The Hateful Eight" still takes place inside a single room. If we're going to award brownie points to "Revenant" for degree of difficulty, we have to subtract for ease.

Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Chris Cross: The Martian and Son of Saul for Sicario and The Hateful Eight.

Costume Design

In a year with a strong favorite for Best Picture, many of the other categories tend to fall in line with wins whether they deserve them or not. That isn't the case this year, so people feel free to vote for what they thought was the truly most outstanding achievement in a given field -- a novel idea, that.

You'd think "The Danish Girl" would win here, since it's a story told largely through clothes. Most people are picking "Mad Max: Fury Road." I think it will go to "Carol."

Will Win: Carol
Should Win: The Danish Girl

Film Editing

The consensus seems to be that "Mad Max: Fury Road" is going to run the table on the "technical" awards, or close to it. I find little reason to disagree. Just a masterpiece of craftsmanship. Though I think "The Revenant" will pick off a few, mostly for its dense aural landscape.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Production Design 

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing

Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Editing

Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Music (Original Song)

"Simple Song #3" was about the only thing I actually liked about "Youth." The fact that "Fifty Shades of Grey" has one more Oscar nomination than "Love & Mercy," "Mr. Holmes," "The End of the Tour" and many other outstanding films is worthy of Dante's Inferno-style damnation.

I think the Academy will go Gaga. At least Sam Smith's falsetto warbling, aka "Worst Bond Title Song Ever," won't win.

Will Win: Til It Happens To You from The Hunting Ground
Should Win: Til It Happens To You from The Hunting Ground

Music (Original Score)

This could be the most sentimental category of the night. You've got two film music legends, John  Williams and Ennio Morricone, going head-to-head. Despite this being his 50th nomination -- that's right, 5-0 -- Williams won't win because "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" simply builds on his already iconic music of nearly 40 years ago. "The Hateful Eight" is one of Morricone's most playful scores, if not among his very best -- though that's rarefied terrain indeed.

Having never won in five previous tries -- even being written off with the "We think you're done" honorary Oscar in 2007 -- this will finally be the 87-year-old Italian's time.

Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Should Win: The Hateful Eight

Oscar picks & predictions

There's no clear front-runner in the Oscar race this year, and that's a very good thing.

In recent times the Academy Awards have become less about coronating a single movie as "the champ" and, justly, more about recognizing individuals for their outstanding work in particular endeavors. Sometimes the awards cluster up around a pair or trio of films, but lately there hasn't been a runaway favorite that sweeps the awards, as was more common in the 1980s and '90s ("Titanic," "American Beauty," "The English Patient").

It's been more than a decade since we had a film garner double-digit Academy Awards, and "Slumdog Millionaire" was on the recent high end with eight. Lately the typical Best Picture winner has only won a handful of other Oscars, with a total tally of just three or four not at all unusual.

I like this because the best film of the year is not necessarily the best directed one, and the finest screenplay did not invariably have commensurate performances, and so forth. Indeed, recently the pattern has been for the film receiving the Best Actress or Best Actor award to have that as its sole recognition.

The hallmark of this trend is last year's Best Director win by Ang Lee for "Life of Pi." It was not really a contender in the Best Picture race, but most people who saw it recognized it as best representing a director's singular vision.

If you like the concept of meritocracy, it's comforting knowing that the person who wins in the "minor" categories -- costumes, sound editing, makeup -- does so because they truly did the best work of the year, rather than because most people adored a particular film and voted a "straight ticket" on their ballot.

But alas ... this does also make the job a lot harder for those of us in the prognosticating business. My ability to correctly forecast the winners has waned as the process has grown more stubbornly, blessedly, chaotic.

So here are my predictions of who will win in all 24 categories, and my picks for who should win. As always, I will add a snarky feature by telling you who should've been nominated and wasn't, and which of the actual nominees' spot they should cross out. (Which I'm calling "Chris Cross," since I'm doing the crossing.)

Best Picture

Will Win: "12 Years a Slave"
Should Win: "Her"
Chris Cross: "Prisoners" and "Rush" replace "American Hustle" and "Philomena"

This year would appear to be a two-way race between "12 Years a Slave" and "American Hustle," with the former waning and the later waxing as time has gone on. But "Dallas Buyers Club" has a puncher's chance, as does "Nebraska" and "The Wolf of Wall Street."

"Gravity" was much loved when it came out in early fall, but its prospects quickly dimmed as  people decided it was merely very well-made entertainment lacking the gravitas of a typical Best Picture winner. (And yes, that pun was totally intended.)

But the space drama/thriller is on the upswing again, and indeed many smart people are now predicting that "Gravity" will sneak in with an upset Best Pic win as "Slave" and "Hustle" cancel each other out. Some of this has to do with a relatively new balloting system that gives weight to highly ranked votes, so a movie that gets lots of 2nd place ballots will beat out another that gets more 1st place ones but fewer lower-ranked votes.

Since "American Hustle" and "12 Years a Slave" have both been polarizing to a certain degree, they might get left entirely off some Academy voters' ballots. I certainly would do that with "Hustle," easily the most over-praised film of the year. (The best summation I've heard of it is fellow Yapper Nick Roger's dismissal of it as "a '70s aesthetic in search of a movie.")

Still, I've going to swing against the unconventional-conventional thinking and predict that the early favorite will nose out the competition, with "Slave" taking the gold. It simply has that classic Best Picture pedigree: an important historical subject, terrific performances, lush costumes and production values, etc.

I do expect "Gravity" to be the overall winner in terms of total statuettes, dominating the technical categories simply because its cinematography, musical score and so forth simply are head-and-shoulders above the competition. From a sheer craftsmanship standpoint, few other films from 2013 were even close.

"Her" and "Prisoners" were my two favorite films of the year, neither of which garnered the attention they deserved. "Rush" was possibly the most criminally ignored movie of 2013, with not even an Oscar nod in the sound categories. My feelings about "American Hustle" are well-known and don't bear repeating here. "Philomena" is a fine film but not in the same league as the rest of the nominees.

Best Actress

Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Meryl Streep
Chris Cross: Brie Larson for Amy Adams

This is an exceedingly weak category reflecting a bad year for meaty parts for women. Blanchett appears to be the runaway favorite, and while she was good in "Blue Jasmine" it's hardly one of Woody Allen's better efforts. I found the character too derivative of other classic film anti-heroines -- Blanche DuBois from "A Streetcar Named Desire," Norma Desmond from "Sunset Boulevard" -- to give it much credence.

Sandra Bullock is the stalking horse here, a great performance without a whole lot of dialogue. But I found Meryl Streep's character in "August: Osage County" to be one of the more resonant in her long and glorious career. Observers have complained that she was too unlikeable -- well duh, that was the entire point, portraying a woman reflecting back at the world all the pain and anger she's absorbed throughout her life.

Not many saw the lovely gem "Short Term 12," but Brie Larson was terrific in it. I'm frankly flummoxed by Amy Adams' nomination, in a role as cheesy and inauthentic as the movie around it.

Many were angry about Emma Thompson not getting nominated for "Saving Mr. Banks" even though she won the Golden Globe, but I'm not one of them. A spectacularly over-hyped film.

Best Actor

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Chris Cross: Robert Redford and Tom Hanks for Christian Bale and Leonardo DiCaprio

The men's acting category was every bit as good as the women's was awful. A lot of people were shocked when Redford and Hanks, each giving possibly the best performance of their illustrious careers, went un-nominated while relative whippersnappers Bale and DiCaprio got in. Count me among them.

I thought DiCaprio was good in "Wolf of Wall Street," but it wasn't even his best role of the year -- "The Great Gatsby" was. Bale is usually as reliable as Big Ben, but he failed to connect while playing a character who largely operated inside his own head in "American Hustle." The outward appearance alterations, with the big belly and pretend comb-over, struck me as cheap and showy.

On the flip side, there was nothing showy about McConaughey's deathly transformation for "Dallas Buyers Club." His weight loss was so dramatic he looked virtually unrecognizable, the cowboy handsomeness he's coasted on so long completely leached away. Similarly, his acting represented a stripping away of his star persona and actor's charisma. 

Because McConaughey's been around for almost two decades and has essentially resurrected his career with serious roles in smaller films, Hollywood is itching to reward that with a Best Actor win. But I thought Ejiofor gave the performance of the year. "12 Years a Slave" was an emotional journey in which the audience had to always been in sync with the main character, and that's a hard thing to do. He was touching, graceful and utterly human.

Bruce Dern was terrific in a career-capping performance in "Nebraska," but I think most Oscar voters will see the nomination as his reward, it having been so long since he was recognized by the Academy (or enjoying a role deserving of their attention).

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Jared Leto
Should Win: Barkhad Abdi
Chris Cross: Daniel Brühl, Harrison Ford, Matthew McConaughey and Sam Rockwell for Jonah Hill, Bradley Cooper, Jared Leto and Michael Fassbender

Yes, you read that right: If it were up to me, I'd swap out fully 80% of the nominees in this category. 

Someone wisely commented that getting an Oscar nomination in the acting categories is much like being named an NBA All-Star: once you get over the hump of being voted in the first time, it's much more likely you'll show up on the roster even when your play is not truly deserving.

Look, I like Jonah Hill -- he's an agreeable young comedian segueing into more serious roles. Good for him. But if you think his one-note performance as the manic wingman in "The Wolf of Wall Street" was better than Daniel Brühl's mesmerizing work in "Rush," then we just don't have much to talk about.

Harrison Ford did something in "42" that seemed cartoonish at first, but had many layers underneath. Matthew McConaughey was wounded and watchable in "Mud." And Sam Rockwell was simply splendid as the wastrel-king-turned-mentor in "The Way, Way Back."

Michael Fassbender's character, as it was written and how he interpreted it, was for me the fatal flaw in the otherwise amazing "12 Years a Slave." It was like the filmmakers and the actor were trying to cram everything vile and venal about slavery into one outsized persona. He was a cartoon villain.

Of those left, Barkhad Abdi is my choice. Remember, this is a guy who had never so much as acted in a school play going toe-to-toe with Tom Hanks, and coming out looking good. He gave a depth and complexity to his film's bad guy that Fassbender did not.

Leto appears destined to win. Bravo; it's a brave, elegant performance, underlined by his own skin-and-bones transformation. I just felt that as written there wasn't enough meat in the part. (Yes, another intentional bad pun.)

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o
Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Chris Cross: Scarlett Johansson for Sally Hawkins

This one comes down to last year's winner Jennifer Lawrence versus newcomer Lupita Nyong'o, with them trading places in the preliminary awards. I think Lawrence was the best thing about the insipid "American Hustle," to the point the movie went into a torpor whenever she wasn't onscreen. 

It may sound silly, but I think Nyong'o's campaign has been bustressed by her fashionable presence at all the various Hollywood parties and awards events -- "Look at that dress! She's so beautiful!" A lot of people would love to see her up on that stage just for the sheer pageantry of it, not to mention adding a little much-needed diversity to the ranks of Oscar winners.

My problem with her performance is that, like Jared Leto, her role just isn't all that hefty. She doesn't have a lot of dialogue in "12 Years a Slave," mostly acting as a visual presence, a subservient counterpoint to Solomon Northup's uppity educated slave. She only gets one scene where she really "acts," and for me that's not enough to justify a golden statuette.

June Squibb was just delicious in "Nebraska," taking a showy, funny part and milking it while keeping a sense of humanity; if  Lawrence and Nyong'o cancel each other out, she has a shot at sneaking in here.

I liked Sally Hawkins in "Blue Jasmine," but ScarJo gave one of the most amazing voice-only performances in cinematic history in "Her."

Best Director

Will Win/Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Chris Cross: Spike Jonze for David O. Russell

As I stated above, I believe this will be another year in which Academy members go for the best-directed movie as opposed to voting for the director of the best movie. With "Gravity" Cuarón executed a real labor of love, becoming an expert in visual effects and green screen cinematography that he'd never really tackled before.

The result was a sumptuous, exhilarating cinematic ride -- an example of old school "you are there" filmmaking using all the flashy new tools.

His main competition is Steve McQueen for "12 Years a Slave," and I wouldn't really have a problem with him winning. Other than my stated problems with the Fassbender character, it's a lovely film.

Russell has been nominated for director twice before without winning, and he's become known as a favorite of actors, who represent the largest voting bloc of the Academy. So you can't count him out. Same goes for Scorsese because, well, he's Martin Fucking Scorsese, in his sixth decade of making movies and hasn't lost a tick off his fastball.

I just adore "Her," and its success depends entirely on the director being able to maintain the right tone and balancing the audience's suspension of disbelief. It was a masterful turn, so Spike Jonze should've gotten nominated. I'll boot Russell because he took the bones of a great story and turned it into a freak show.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win/Should Win: "Her"
Chris Cross: "Rush" for "American Hustle"

Original Screenplay is one category that the Oscars have historically used as a "make up" award for smaller pictures that aren't really a contender for the big prize. So I'm hoping, and predicting, that Spike Jonze will win for the odd, strange and wonderful "Her." It's too bad audiences dismissed it as being about "a guy who falls in love with his computer," because I haven't seen another film in a long time that comes this close to capturing the real human condition -- who we are right now, and where we're going.

For my money, the second-best screenplay of the year was Peter Morgan's yeoman's work on "Rush," another movie audiences didn't respond to. It was a sports movie that cared more about the Formula One drivers than the cars and the action (though the movie was very good at that, too). Morgan's script for "The Damned United" also didn't get an Oscar nom, pushing him to the fore in the race for Best Screenwriter The Academy Keeps Screwing.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: "12 Years a Slave"
Should Win: "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Chris Cross: "Great Expectations" for "Philomena"

Not many people saw Mike Newell's lovely adaptation of Dickens' "Great Expectations," but I thought
David Nicholls' script remained faithful to the book while making it a more emotionally compelling journey than we usually get out of his novels. I'd knock out "Philomena," because it's a little rote and obvious, telegraphing its punches.

Wherever it ends up in the Best Picture race, "12 Years a Slave" seems to have this award wrapped up. I thought Terence Winter's intentionally chaotic, over-the-top screenplay for "The Wolf of Wall Street" captured the essence of its live-for-the-moment main character.

Best Cinematography

Will Win/Should Win: "Gravity"
Chris Cross: "The Wolf of Wall Street" for "The Grandmaster"

I haven't actually seen "The Grandmaster," so I probably shouldn't really cross it out. But the frenetic visual splendor of "The Wolf of Wall Street" contributed greatly to the film's appeal, and it deserved a nod.

If there's a "minor" category of the Oscars that deserves to be counted among the majors, it's cinematography. Quite often the director of photography can have as much impact on a movie's success as the director. Much has been written about Gregg Toland's work with Orson Welles making him the real genius behind "Citizen Kane."

More than any other film, "Gravity" leaned on its visual poetry to carry the plot. Emmanuel Lubezki's groundbreaking work meshed well with the special effects and actors.

Best Animated Film

Will Win/Should Win: "Frozen"
Chris Cross: "Monsters University" for "Despicable Me 2"

This one's not even close. It was a terrible year for animated feature films, with only "Frozen" and the little-seen "The Wind Rises" truly even deserving of a nomination. "Wind" is reputed to be Japanese master Hayao Miyazaki's last film, and while it's very good it won't be remembered among his very best, paving the way for an easy "Frozen" win. I'll take the cheerful "Monsters University" over the paint-by-numbers "Despicable Me 2."

Best Foreign Film

Will Win: "The Great Beauty"

It was a strange year for foreign language movies, with none of the expected strong contenders, like "Blue Is the Warmest Color," making the list of nominees. As a result, I haven't seen any of them, but I foresee "The Great Beauty" as the frontrunner.

Best Documentary

Will Win/Should Win: "The Act of Killing"

A strong year for documentary features, with "The Act of Killing" leading the pack with its very non-traditional style, essentially letting the subjects of the film take over the production. Brave, disturbing, illuminating.

Best Documentary (Short)

Will Win: "The Lady in Number 6"

This one is a total stab in the dark, as documentary shorts really get screened for critics (or anyone).

Best Costume Design

Will Win: "American Hustle"
Should Win: "The Great Gatsby"

"The Great Gatsby" suffers from having come out early in the year, so voters are less likely to remember its visual splendor, greatly enhanced by the terrific 1920s outfits. So "American Hustle" will likely take the win for its excess of '70s cheese.

Best Production Design

Will Win: "12 Years a Slave"
Should Win: "The Great Gatsby"

Again, "Gatsby" had the best period look of any film in 2013, but it came out so long ago its chances have dimmed. While "American Hustle" could also come out on top here, I think the antebellum sets and designs of "12 Years a Slave" will prevail.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Will Win/Should Win: "Dallas Buyers Club"

I think "Dallas Buyers Club" will win, simply because few people want to see either of the execrable two other nominees, "Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa" or "The Lone Ranger," to be remembered as Oscar-winning films.

Best Visual Effects

Best Sound Editing

Best Sound Mixing

Will Win/Should Win: "Gravity"
Chris Cross: "Pacific Rim" for "The Lone Ranger," "All Is Lost" and "Lone Survivor," respectively

These next three categories are all easy picks, with the visual and aural polish of "Gravity" blowing away everything else in the running. I'm still shocked that "Pacific Rim" didn't pick up some nominations in the "technical" categories. "Rush" also deserved recognition in the sound categories.

By the way, if you're confused about the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, here's a quick primer: sound editing involves the creation and recording of sounds, and sound mixing is how those sounds are blended together in the film's final audio track. So if you hear a really cool sound effect, but it's almost drowned out by background noise, that would be an example of good sound editing and bad sound mixing.

Best Original Score

Will Win/Should Win: "Gravity"

Kind of a weak year for movie music, leaving the path open for "Gravity," which by necessity was carried along during long stretches by Steven Price's music.

Best Original Song

Will Win/Should Win: "Let It Go" from "Frozen"
Chris Cross: "In Summer" for "Ordinary Love"

Super-easy pick. "Let It Go" has become a national phenomenon, though "Happy" also gotten a lot of play on children's radio. I liked it the first 1,072 times I had to listen to it. I was truly surprised some of the other terrific songs from "Frozen" didn't make the list.

Best Short Film (Animated)

Will Win: "Get a Horse!"
Should Win: "Mr. Hublot"

Disney/Pixar generally owns this category, and "Get a Horse!" was indeed a giddy, visually inventive romp. But "Mr. Hublot" was a mesmerizing animated adventure with a distinctive look and a heart full of pathos. The Japanese "Possessions" was also very good.

Best Short Film (Live Action)

Will Win: "Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)"
Should Win: "Helium"

If the French "Just Before Losing Everything," about an abused wife seeking to escape her husband along with her two kids, doesn't win then the equally somber Spanish "That Wasn't Me," about an African child soldier, will. Of the two, I prefer the latter. But I'll take the sweet sentiment of "Helium," about a dying boy and a janitor's fanciful final gift.