Oscar picks and predictions 2012

One of the few good things about a feeble cinematic year is there is no overwhelming favorite set to dominate the 84th Academy Awards. For 2011, things are especially up in the air.

Consider that the two films with the most nominations, "Hugo" with 11 and "The Artist" with 10, have a combined box office total of less than $100 million. The also-ran, "The Descendents" with five nods, barely passed the $70 million mark.

Brisk ticket sales often don't correlate with quality filmmaking -- just look at 10 most popular movies of last year, nine of which were sequels (and the other was "Thor").

But when hardly anyone has seen the films being honored, that makes for little enthusiasm among potential Oscar-watchers. Even with the blessed return of Billy Crystal as emcee, I expect this year's Oscar telecast to be among the lowest-rated.

For those of us who like to see the awards spread around based on actual achievement, rather than following the bandwagon of a swaggering favorite, it's an exciting time.

Here are my predictions of who will win the Academy Award in each category, followed by my personal pick of who I think most deserves the statuette. For fun, I'll also suggest someone who should've been nominated, but wasn't.

BEST PICTURE

Winner: The Artist
Pick: The Artist
What About...: A Better Life

Very tough call here. It had appeared to be a two-way race between "The Artist" and "The Descendents," but then "Hugo" popped up in a late rally to take the lead in Oscar nominations. There's no end of love between the Academy and Martin Scorsese, flavored with a dollop of guilt because it took him until late in his career before he finally won an Oscar. But I'm betting my own pick, "The Artist," will follow in the footsteps of "The Hurt Locker," and the Academy will vote its conscience for a little film that truly is the best of the year. An even littler film that hardly anyone saw is the wonderful immigration drama, "A Better Life."

BEST DIRECTOR

Winner: Michel Hazanavicius
Pick: Hazanavicius
What About...: Pedro Almodóvar

It appears the director of "The Artist" will pick up the directing Oscar, and he deserves to. Hazanavicius won the Director's Guild prize, which has proven one of the most reliable bellwethers for the Academy Awards. Though, as noted above, the chance for a Scorsese upset is never to be discounted. Spanish auteur Almodóvar deserved more love for "The Skin I Live In," his most dazzling movie in at least a decade.

BEST ACTOR

Winner: Jean Dujardin
Pick: Brad Pitt
What About...: Michael Shannon

This category is as interesting for who was left off the list as who will win. There was much gnashing of teeth about Michael Fassbender ("Shame") and Leonardo DiCaprio ("J. Edgar") being passed over. But the most worthy snubee was Shannon in "Take Shelter." Dujardin of "The Artist" won this prize from the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which usually preludes the Oscars. I would've thought George Clooney was the frontrunner for his game-changing role in "The Descendents;" the Hollywood establishment adores him. For my money, I thought Pitt gave the performance of his career in "Moneyball."

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Viola Davis
Pick: Meryl Streep
What About...: Tilda Swinton

Davis of "The Help" seems to have this award wrapped up, despite early frontrunners status by Streep. It's a familiar spot for the grand dame, who always seems to get passed by a younger competitor late in the race -- despite 17 nominations, Streep is still looking for her first Oscar win in three decades. The feel-good political correctness of "The Help" seems to be buoying Davis; she would be only the second African-American woman to win this prize. Personally, I thought her role, in both scope and depth, was a supporting one. I have a lot of problems with "We Need to Talk About Kevin" -- starting with that title -- but Swinton is amazing in it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Christopher Plummer
Pick: Plummer
What About...: Andy Serkis

Plummer, playing a septuagenarian widower who comes out of the closet in "Beginners," has this category totally locked up. A lot of people were angry Albert Brooks wasn't nominated for his turn as a gregariously malevolent mobster in "Drive," but from my perspective it was just Brooks doing a very good Brooks impression ... with razors. Serkis, whose digitally augmented performance carried "Rise of the Planet of the Apes," practically needs his own category.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Octavia Spencer
Pick: Spencer
What About...: Jessica Chastain

Another foregone conclusion: Spencer took a role in "The Help" that had been custom-written for her by a friend and knocked it out of the park, with sass and soul. Ironic that Chastain was nominated for "The Help," when she was so much better in several other roles during a fantastic breakout year, including "The Tree of Life," "Coriolanus" and "The Debt." Her turn as a supportive but realistic housewife in "Take Shelter" was probably her best.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Winner: Kung Fu Panda 2
Pick: Rango
What About...: The Adventures of Tintin

Astonishing that "Tintin," Steven Spielberg's first animated film, was not nominated. It's not a great movie, but head and shoulders above limp sequels "Puss in Boots" and "Kung Fu Panda 2." Something tells me, though, that one or the other will win -- the history of this relatively young category runs more toward "most popular" than "best." "Rango" was clearly the latter.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: The Artist
Pick: The Artist
What About...: Rango

Many were overjoyed about "Bridesmaids" picking up a screenwriting nomination, but for me it falls into that category of movies that aren't nearly as funny as they seem to think they are. Plus, say what you will, it was a knockoff of "The Hangover." Michel Hazanavicius, who wrote and directed "The Artist," came up with the most truly inventive and fresh story of the year. The only challenger for sheer originality would be the wonderfully weird "Rango," but animated films rarely get nominated for writing.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: The Descendants
Pick: Moneyball
What About...: The Skin I Live In

A competitive category with several really strong nominees. It would seem to be between "The Descendants" and "Moneyball." I thought the latter had the screenplay of the year, by script wizards Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. But the screenplay awards tend to be given out as consolation prizes, and I think Alexander Payne will be honored similarly to his last film, "Sideways," which lost out on the biggest prizes but took home the writing statue.

And the rest...

Sure, it's easy enough to make predictions for Best Actor or Best Picture. But what about those smaller, technical awards that are given out when most viewers run to the bathroom or warm up more popcorn? It takes a true prognosticator of mettle and grit to make picks for Best Soundwave Mix Editing. (That's a fake category ... I think.) Here are my stabs in the dark.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: The Artist
Pick: Hugo

I have plenty of reservations about "Hugo," but not its gorgeous look courtesy of Robert Richardson. I have no complaints, though, about Guillaume Schiffman's vivid black-and-white photography winning for "The Artist."

ART DIRECTION

Winner: Hugo
Pick: Hugo

COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: The Artist
Pick: Anonymous

EDITING

Winner: The Artist
Pick: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winner: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: Incident in New Baghdad

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Winner: La Luna
Pick: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

Winner: Raju
Pick: The Shore

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Winner: A Separation

MAKEUP

Winner: Albert Nobbs
Pick: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

MUSICAL SCORE

Winner: The Artist
Pick: The Artist

BEST SONG

Winner: "Man or Muppet" from The Muppets
Pick: "Man or Muppet"

In an embarrassing occurrence, only two songs were nominated this year -- a clear indication of how weak the field was. How we miss you, Howard Ashman.

SOUND EDITING

Winner: War Horse
Pick: Drive

SOUND MIXING

Winner: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Pick: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Pick: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Video review: "Moneyball"

I truly believe Brad Pitt gave the performance of his career in "Moneyball," far outpacing his overrated work in the pedantic "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button."

Playing Billy Beane, the general manager of the dirt-poor Oakland A's baseball club, Pitt shows layers and nuance that have been missing in his previous straightforward acting turns.

Billy is outwardly brash, even cocky in the face he presents to the his organization, the media and even his family. He has to, when he's trying to beat teams that can spend three times as much on player salaries. Inside, he's a nervous wreck who's convinced he's cursed.

With the help of a socially awkward young computer genius, Peter Brand (Jonah Hill), Billy institutes the then-radical concept of sabermetrics. Essentially, this means jettisoning tried-and-true methods for evaluating players and instead relying on complex mathematical algorithms to determine the best team to be had at the lowest price.

Soon Billy and his apprentice have assembled a cast of players who are over the hill, injured or playing out of position -- what Peter dubs "an island of misfit toys." After some initial stumbles, they start racking up W's.

Director Bennett Miller and screenwriters Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillian succeeded in making a baseball movie with very little baseball, where the real action happens not on the diamond but in the executive offices.

Video extras are a solid base hit, but they failed to put some mustard on the offerings.

At least the basic DVD edition has a few nice features -- it's so common nowadays to find all the good stuff saved for the Blu-ray. The "Moneyball" DVD comes with a making-of documentary, a feature on the real-life Billy Beane, blooper real with Pitt and Hill, and a number of deleted scenes.

The Blu-ray version adds a featurette on selecting the movie's cast and crew and another about adapting a non-fiction sports book into a feature film. There's also a preview for the 2012 season of the "MLB" video game series.

Movie: 3.5 stars out of four
Extras: 2.5 stars out of four

Review: "Moneyball"

“Moneyball” is simultaneously deeper and funnier than I thought it would be. Based on the nonfiction book by Michael Lewis, it’s a look at how number-crunchers have changed the game of baseball through something called sabermetrics. Instead of relying on gut instincts and baseball acumen to evaluate players, this method employs computers and bean-counting to identify the best players that can be had for the least amount of money.

Now, baseball is not my thing. And mathematical algorithms are even less my thing. But instead of zeroing in on the technical aspects of sabermetrics, “Moneyball” is the story of Billy Beane. The General Manager of the cash-poor Oakland Athletics, Billy must try every year to put together a roster that can compete against teams like the New York Yankees, which can spend three times as much on payroll.

It’s a terrific performance by Brad Pitt, quite possibly the best of his career. His Billy Beane constantly operates on two levels: The brash, confident side he presents to his employees, the media and even his family; and the dark and brooding side that expects failure at every turn, refusing to even attend his own team’s games because he’s convinced he’s jinxed.

There’s one great scene where Billy confronts his newly-acquired 37-year-old star player, David Justice (Steven Bishop). It’s a standoff between two savvy baseball veterans who see through each others’ bluster, and want the other guy to know it.

Justice tells Billy he knows face-saving patter when he hears it. Billy cannily wins Justice’s loyalty by laying out their respective goals in stark terms: I want to squeeze the last bit of baseball ability out of your aging body, and you want to stay in the big leagues.

Billy’s scheme doesn’t go over so well with the rest of the organization. The head scout quits/gets himself fired after being pushed aside: “You don’t put together a team with a computer!”

The manager, Art Howe (Philip Seymour Hoffman), at first refuses to put Billy’s new recruits on the field, such as a catcher Scott Hatteburg (Chris Pratt) with permanent nerve damage in his elbow, who Billy thinks will make for a cost-efficient replacement at first base for recently departed free agent Jason Giambi.

Howe, who’s been rebuffed in his demand for a contract extension, coldly tells Billy why he won’t put Hatteburg in: “I’m playing my team in a way I can explain in job interviews next winter.”

But Billy has faith in his young right-hand man, Peter Brand, played against type by Jonah Hill. Peter’s golden measuring stick for players is their on-base percentage – doesn’t matter if it’s a home run or a walk, though players who get walked a lot tend to come much cheaper than those walloping dingers. Peter gets his own lessons from Billy on how to deliver the news when trading or cutting a player: ‘One bullet to the head rather than five in the chest.’

The end result of Peter’s calculations is what he dubs “an island of misfit toys” – players who are injured, or too old, or playing the wrong position, who have been systematically devalued by their teams and the sport of baseball. By patching together a quilt of utility men, Billy and Peter believe they can not only win games, but change the game itself.

After a disastrous start, the A’s soon prove the naysayers wrong, even breaking the American League record for consecutive wins. Eventually, other teams come calling for Billy’s magic potion, and with big paychecks to pay for it.

The film ends with a coda that doesn’t quite tell the whole story. It says Billy is still the GM of the A’s and is still trying to win “the last game of the season,” aka win the World Series. What it doesn’t mention is that the team hasn’t even made the playoffs since 2006, and that other teams have adopted Billy’s methods with more success than he.

“Moneyball” was adeptly directed by Bennett Miller (“Capote”), who wisely concentrates his energy less on the action inside the baseball diamond than the grunt work that goes on behind the scenes.

But this film’s success is attributable mainly, I think, to some heroic script work by two heavyweights: Aaron Sorkin, who won the Oscar for “The Social Network,” and Steve Zaillian, who has his own statue for “Schindler’s List.”

The creative team decided not to make a typical sports movie, but a deep and probing film that gives us a glimpse at the high-stakes games that happen off the baseball diamond.

3.5 stars out of four

Fall film preview

A funny thing happened on the way to our Fall Movie Preview: The Harry Potter franchise wrapped up its decade-long run, no other high-profile movie emerged to dominate the spotlight, and for the first time in memory the cinematic season seemed wide open and full of promise.

Or disappointment. When a "Twilight" flick is the biggest thing on the docket, that's a little scary ... in a way those emo vampires are not.

So we should approach this season with caution. No 800-pound gorillas means there's room for intimate little films with ambition to find an audience. But it also means we could see one letdown after another.

So here's a look at the months ahead, with my picks for the most promising flicks marked. Please note, release dates are subject to change.

Abduction (9/23) -- Taylor Lautner aims for some non-"Twilight" stardom with this thriller about a high schooler caught up in the world of international espionage. The premise is sly: He spots a picture of himself as a small boy on a missing children website, and realizes his whole life is a lie.

Moneyball (9/23) -- Brad Pitt stars in this based-on-truth story about how computer nerds took over professional baseball, using complex algorithms to select the right collection of players. Was this movie made using the same system?

*50/50 (9/30) -- I'm not sure how many people are dying to see goofball Seth Rogen in serious mode, but he produced and co-starred in this drama based on the real-life experiences of his best friend (played by Joseph Gordon-Levitt) contracting spine cancer at age 25.

*Real Steel (Oct. 7) -- Looks like a goof at first: In a near future where boxing is outlawed, ex-contender (Hugh Jackman) trains robots to go rock 'em sock 'em in the ring. But it's actually a tender father/son bonding story a la "The Champ."

*The Ides of March (Oct. 7) -- Directed, co-written and starring George Clooney, this may be the first serious Oscar challenger of the season. Ryan Gosling plays a young campaign press secretary who confronts the dirty underbelly of politics when his presidential candidate (Clooney) is threatened with scandal.

The Three Musketeers 3D (10/21) -- Like Robin Hood, the Musketeers are one of those perennial stories that gets remade and retold for each generation. In this case, it's with a bunch of slo-mo explosions and CG swordfights. With Milla Jovovich as a man-eating m'lady.

The Rum Diary (10/28) -- Johnny Depp tackles Hunter S. Thompson again as a journalist flushing his life down the drain in the Caribbean when a big story falls in his lap.

Puss in Boots (Nov. 4) -- A creatively fizzled kiddie franchise attempts a spin-off. Looks like a piece of shrek.

Tower Heist (Nov. 4) -- Ben Stiller and Eddie Murphy team up in a comedy about ... aaaand I think that's all we need to know.

Immortals (11/11) -- If you liked the "Clash of the Titans" remake, this action/adventure should be right up your alley. The Greek gods of Olympus are nervous when a human king (Mickey Rourke) seeks a powerful magic bow that could be used to threaten their dominion. Theseus (Henry Cavill) gets the nod from on high to stop him.

J. Edgar (11/11) -- Young and sexy Leonardo Di Caprio may not seem like the obvious choice to play bulldog G-man J. Edgar Hoover. But the latest drama from director Clint Eastwood is a sobering look at the man who was the face of federal law enforcement for more than 40 years.

Machine Gun Preacher (11/11) -- No, it's not an action/exploitation flick. Gerard Butler stars in this drama based on the true story of a drug-dealing criminal who finds his faith in Africa, where he fights against corruption.

Jack and Jill (11/11) -- Adam Sandler plays both brother and sister in his latest assault on comedy. To make things odder, Al Pacino is around, playing ... Al Pacino. Who falls for the sis. Ick.

*The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn -- Part 1 (11/18) -- The mega-vampire heavyweight franchise -- which, in fairness, has gotten better as it's gone along -- pulls a "Harry Potter" by splitting up the final novel into two parts. Bella (Kristen Stewart) gets married, knocked up and bitten. Edward and Jacob (Robert Pattinson and Taylor Lautner) trade sneers.

*The Descendants (11/23) -- Alexander Payne ("Sideways") directs this tragicomedy about a father (George Clooney) whose family always came second, until his wife suffers a serious accident and he's forced to deal with his daughters. Meanwhile, he may have to sell the family's ancestral Hawaii plot.

The Muppets (11/23) -- Twelve years after their last feature film and 21 years after creator Jim Henson's death, the Muppet franchise rolls on with R-rated funnyman Jason Segal as the new guiding light and star. Kermit, Miss Piggy and the gang must raise $10 million to save their theater.

Hugo (11/23) -- Martin Scorsese's long-awaited fantasy is about a boy living in a 1930s train station who struggles to pierce the mystery of his long-lost father, and the strange automaton he built.

New Year's Eve (12/9) -- Along the lines of "Valentine's Day" and other holiday-themed hits, an ensemble cast of stars (Jessica Biel, Ashton Kutcher, Robert De Niro, Katherine Heigl) celebrate love and other warm weepies. (Up next: "Arbor Day: The Roots of Romance.")

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (12/16) -- Robert Downey Jr. returns as Holmes takes on his greatest nemesis, Professor Moriarty (Jared Harris). It's elementary to deduce that it will be another craptastic blend of fisticuffs, mumbled quips and computer-generated hi jinks.

*The Iron Lady (12/16) -- Do-anything super-actress Meryl Streep tackles British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in this high-profile biopic.

Young Adult (12/16) -- A divorced writer (Charlize Theron) returns to her small Minnesota hometown looking for romance with an old flame. From two of Hollywood's brightest young lights, director Jason Reitman and screenwriter Diablo Cody.

The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (12/21) -- A remake of the Swedish movie based on the smash series of novels. Many (OK, me) question why there even needs to be an English language version. Daniel Craig plays a crusading journalist assisted by a strange but brilliant cyber hacker (Rooney Mara).

Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol (12/21) -- "Knight and Day" was actually pretty good, but did nothing to stop the perception that Tom Cruise's career is in free-fall. This reboot of the spymaster franchise may be his last shot.

The Darkest Hour (12/23) -- A twist on the classic group fighting to survive during the fall of mankind, Emile Hirsch leads a group of five young people stranded in Moscow when will-o-wisps from outer space treat the Earth as a disposable battery.

We Bought A Zoo (12/23) -- The title pretty much says it all in this new dramedy starring Matt Damon as a dad looking for a new start for his family.

The Adventures of Tintin (12/23) -- Steven Spielberg does cartoon! He directs his first animated feature about the popular star of European comic books. The boy adventurer and his pals go in search of a sunken ship. With the voices of Jamie Bell, Daniel Craig and Andy Serkis.

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (12/25) -- A top Oscar contender, this adaptation of the Jonathan Safran Foer novel stars Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock as the parents of a precocious 9-year-old  boy struggling to cope with a tremendous loss on 9/11.

*War Horse (12/28) -- Steven Spielberg (again!) directs this drama about a horse separated from his boy by World War I, and the many people who receive equine inspiration during his long trot around the globe.

Carnage (December) -- Director Roman Polanski gathers a knockout cast -- Kate Winslet, Jodie Foster, Christoph Waltz and John C. Reilly -- in an absurdist comedy based on the Broadway play about two sets of Brooklyn parents who meet after their children get into a fight.