World's greatest Oscar predictions

Here it is: The most complete, boldest, brashest Oscar predictions evah!

You know how most critics and pundits, in offering up their prognostication of who will win this Sunday's Academy Awards, tend to stick to eight or nine so-called major awards? Not here, folks. I'm making predictions in all 24 categories, including Best Catering for the Most Hirsute Short Animated Foreign Language Film.

Let's be frank: How hard is it to look Nostradamus-like when you only stick to the acting, directing and writing categories? Especially this year, when all four acting awards appear to be locked up. It's kind of a cop-out to brag that you went 6-for-8 in your predictions when half of them were gimmes.

So without further ado, here are my predictions for absolutely everything. I'll also be making my own personal picks in most categories.

Cinematography

• “Avatar” Mauro Fiore
• “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” Bruno Delbonnel
• “The Hurt Locker” Barry Ackroyd
• “Inglourious Basterds” Robert Richardson
• “The White Ribbon” Christian Berger

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: The Hurt Locker

My overarching take on this year's Oscars is that most voters who have seen "The Hurt Locker" believe it's a superior film to "Avatar." The problem is, everyone's seen "Avatar," while hardly anyone saw "The Hurt Locker." The former is certainly a monumental achievement. James Cameron and Fiore combined live-action and photo-realistic animation in a (nearly) seamless blend. But Ackroyd's work had a tremendous kinetic energy that drove the movie. The stalking horse here is the German film "The White Ribbon," with its stark, bleak yet beautiful black-and-white imagery.

Art Direction

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• “Avatar” Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
• “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro; Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
• “Nine” Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
• “Sherlock Holmes” Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
• “The Young Victoria” Art Direction: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Maggie Gray

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: Avatar

Great group of nominees; I'm particularly happy to see Terry Gilliam's "Imaginarium" receive some kind of recognition -- it's certainly a visually sumptuous film. "Sherlock" was borderline awful, but its gritty Urban Victoria look was terrific. But I think this is a category where people are going to reward "Avatar" for its sheer spectacle.

Actress

• Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”
• Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”
• Carey Mulligan in “An Education”
• Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
• Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”

Gonna win: Sandra Bullock

Oughtta win: Meryl Streep

Best supporting Actress

• Penélope Cruz in “Nine”
• Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”
• Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”
• Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”
• Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Gonna win: Mo'Nique

Oughtta win: Mo'Nique

Best Actor

• Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”
• George Clooney in “Up in the Air”
• Colin Firth in “A Single Man”
• Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”
• Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”

Gonna win: Jeff Bridges

Oughtta win: Jeff Bridges

Best supporting actor

• Matt Damon in “Invictus”
• Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”
• Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”
• Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”
• Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”

Gonna win: Christoph Waltz

Oughtta win: Stanley Tucci

I'm combining the discussion for all four acting awards into one, since they're the least-interesting races this year. Bridges, Mo'Nique and Waltz are total locks, and Bullock looks to be the heavy favorite. All four have cleaned up in the "precursor" awards -- Golden Globes, SAG Awards, etc. I think Streep gave the best performance, but having been nominated and won multiple times, Academy voters may feel like she's gotten her due. The lack of other nominations for "Julie & Julia" also hurts.

The reverse is true for Bridges, who's been a star for 40 years and been nominated four times without winning. The feeling is "it's his time." Waltz was the best thing about the incredibly uneven "Inglourious Basterds," and Mo'Nique gave her villain role a humanistic core that pushed it into cinematic greatness. I still can't believe this is Tucci's first nomination. Ditto for Christopher Plummer.

Costume design

• “Bright Star” Janet Patterson
• “Coco before Chanel” Catherine Leterrier
• “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” Monique Prudhomme
• “Nine” Colleen Atwood
• “The Young Victoria” Sandy Powell

Gonna win: Coco Before Chanel

Oughtta win: The Young Victoria

When it comes to costumes, I grade on degree of difficulty. My take is that it isn't all that hard to design outfits for "Coco," since you can use the real clothing designs of Chanel as inspiration. Still a terrific-looking bunch of costumes, though. I'll take "Young Victoria" since they had to do the royal stuff as well as before her crowning.

Film editing

• “Avatar” Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
• “District 9” Julian Clarke
• “The Hurt Locker” Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
• “Inglourious Basterds” Sally Menke
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Joe Klotz

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: The Hurt Locker

Avatar will win through sheer momentum, although again I think "The Hurt Locker" is a superior film. Interesting to see "Precious" included here, since it's not a movie with a lot of action scenes that tend to drive the style of editing that is rewarded here. I think the dream sequences and flashbacks to rape are what put it onto this list.

Best Foreign Language Film

• “Ajami” Israel
• “The Milk of Sorrow (La Teta Asustada)” Peru
• “A Prophet (Un Prophète)” France
• “The Secret in Their Eyes (El Secreto de Sus Ojos)” Argentina
• “The White Ribbon (Das Weisse Band)” Germany

Gonna win: A Prophet

Of these nominees I've only seen "The White Ribbon." I can't believe the Academy would reward such a pretentious piece of drek, but I've heard a lot of good things about "Prophet." I think it's that or "Ajami."

Animated Feature Film

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• “Coraline” Henry Selick
• “Fantastic Mr. Fox” Wes Anderson
• “The Princess and the Frog” John Musker and Ron Clements
• “The Secret of Kells” Tomm Moore
• “Up” Pete Docter

Gonna win: Up

Oughtta win: Fantastic Mr. Fox

This is an easy prediction, since "Up" was the only animated film to also receive a Best Picture nomination (becoming only the second movie to do so, the other being "Beauty and the Beast" in 1991). Obviously, if voters felt strongly enough about "Up" to push it into this rare air, it's got the votes in its "home" category.

With five nominees now (instead of three), a lot of people were surprised "Ponyo" by Japanese anime master Hayao Miyazaki wasn't nominated, especially since he's a past winner in this category. Along with 99.99 percent of the world, I haven't seen "The Secret of Kells." For my money, I adored "Fantastic Mr. Fox" for its blend of child-like and adult themes, all wrapped in the hipster sensibility and eclectic soundtrack of Wes Anderson's movies.

Best Documentary Feature

• “Burma VJ” Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller
• “The Cove” Louie Psihoyos and Fisher Stevens
• “Food, Inc.” Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
• “The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers” Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
• “Which Way Home” Rebecca Cammisa

Gonna win: The Cove

Embarrassed to say I've only seen one of the nominees this year, "Food, Inc." "The Cove" won this award from the Indiana film critics, so I'll defer to the home squad.

Best Documentary Short

• “China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province” Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
• “The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner” Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
• “The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant” Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
• “Music by Prudence” Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
• “Rabbit à la Berlin” Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra

Gonna win: The Last Truck

Now you see what a challenge it is to make predictions in every category. I haven't seen any of these, and know nothing about them. Usually, the cynical view when it comes to the documentary category is to give the edge to whichever one is about the Holocaust. Lacking that option this year, I'll go with the one that has a timely theme about the country's economic malaise.

Short film (animated)

• “French Roast” Fabrice O. Joubert
• “Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty” Nicky Phelan and Darragh O’Connell
• “The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)” Javier Recio Gracia
• “Logorama” Nicolas Schmerkin
• “A Matter of Loaf and Death” Nick Park

Gonna win: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Oughtta win: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Thanks to a handy-dandy DVD screener, I've actually seen all the short narrative film nominees this year. This one is an easy prediction, since Nick Park, the Claymation king behind Wallace & Gromit, has won this award just about every time he's had a new movie come out. My other favorite from this group was the bold "Logorama," a world where everything and everyone is made up of corporate logos. I loved evil Ronald McDonald!

Short film (live action)

• “The Door” Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
• “Instead of Abracadabra” Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström
• “Kavi” Gregg Helvey
• “Miracle Fish” Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
• “The New Tenants” Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson

Gonna win: Kavi

Oughtta win: The New Tenants

The black, black comedy "The New Tenants" is my choice here, but it's probably too bleak for most Academy voters. So I'm predicting the uplifting "Kavi" to win. My second choice is the quirky "Instead of Abracadabra" about a lonely magician. I have to say this was a weak field this year, with "Miracle Fish" and "The Door" both underwhelming me.

Sound editing

• “Avatar” Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
• “The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson
• “Inglourious Basterds” Wylie Stateman
• “Star Trek” Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
• “Up” Michael Silvers and Tom Myers

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: The Hurt Locker

Sound mixing

• “Avatar” Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
• “The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
• “Inglourious Basterds” Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
• “Star Trek” Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
• “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: The Hurt Locker

The sound categories are perhaps the wonkiest ones, with few regular folks truly understanding what's involved in providing the non-dialogue and non-music portions of the soundtrack. These awards also tend to get swept up in the tide of enthusiasm for a particular film. Although there's been a fair amount of backlash against "Avatar," I again think that the sheer overpowering spectacle of it will compel people to vote it into the winner's circle. And again, I'll take "Hurt."

Visual Effects

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• “Avatar” Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
• “District 9” Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
• “Star Trek” Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: Avatar

Easy call here, although sometimes I think they ought to have a sliding scale for the film's budget. The catering budget on "Avatar" was probably more than the entire budget for "District 9."

Best Makeup

• “Il Divo” Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
• “Star Trek” Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
• “The Young Victoria” Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore

Gonna win: The Young Victoria

Kind of a weak year for this category. I guess every year can't have "Benjamin Button" -type of movies.

Best Song

• “Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
• “Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
• “Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36” Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
• “Take It All” from “Nine” Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
• “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett

Gonna win: The Weary Kind

Oughtta win: Almost There

Some nice, hummable tunes this year. I seem to recall the last time Randy Newman was a double nominee, he lost out on the award. Unfortunately, when the same film is nominated twice in a single category, the votes tend to cancel each other out. So although I loved the gospel-inspired energy of "Almost There," I think the Academy will go country this year. Interestingly, "Loin de Paname" is one of the few songs sung in a foreign language to be nominated in this category.

Best Musical Score

• “Avatar” James Horner
• “Fantastic Mr. Fox” Alexandre Desplat
• “The Hurt Locker” Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
• “Sherlock Holmes” Hans Zimmer
• “Up” Michael Giacchino

Gonna win: Up

Oughtta win: Fantastic Mr. Fox

This is one of those categories that tends to be determined by the orbital pull of the Best Picture winner. But probably not this year. Horner's a great composer, but his score was a lot of action punctuations and tonal chords without a coherent theme. Quick, hum the theme to "Avatar"! You can't do it. Hans Zimmer's score was one of the few things I really liked about "Sherlock Holmes." I really enjoyed the eclectic style of "Fantastic Mr. Fox," including Desplat's quirky banjo-heavy score. I think "Up" will win simply because it had the most melodic, instantly recognizable musical theme of all five nominees.

Best Screenplay (Adapted)

• “District 9” Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
• “An Education” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
• “In the Loop” Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
• “Up in the Air” Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

Gonna win: Up in the Air

Oughtta win: Up in the Air

"Up in the Air," which just a few months ago seemed like the runaway picture, has faded in the Oscar race. Other than its three acting awards, it only got three other nominations total. That indicates people weren't enthusiastic about it. But I think in the end Academy voters will recognize that this film lived and died by its script. It had a great personal story with a resonant backdrop about people losing their jobs.

Best Screenplay (Original)

• “The Hurt Locker” Written by Mark Boal
• “Inglourious Basterds” Written by Quentin Tarantino
• “The Messenger” Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
• “A Serious Man” Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• “Up” Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

Gonna win: Inglourious Basterds

Oughtta win: The Hurt Locker

Historically, the Oscars have used this category as a makeup award for a filmmaker or movie that didn't quite make it into the top tier of consideration. So my thought is they're going to reward Quentin Tarantino for doing that thing he does. Personally, I thought "Basterds" was occasionally brilliant, but often just plain boring. Great to see an animated film recognized for its writing. "The Hurt Locker" was number two on my Top 10 List, and is just an incredible film.

Best Director

• “Avatar” James Cameron
• “The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow
• “Inglourious Basterds” Quentin Tarantino
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels
• “Up in the Air” Jason Reitman

Gonna win: Kathryn Bigelow

Oughtta win: Kathryn Bigelow

With no clear front-runner this year, my guess is that voters are going to split the difference and give Kathryn Bigelow the director's award, and let James Cameron collect a producer's statue when "Avatar" wins Best Picture. I'm not part of the "Avatar" backlash -- I hated it so much, I put it 8th on my Top 10 List. But it's the sort of movie that's totally engaging while you're watching it, but after you walk out of the theater and start thinking about it, the cracks start to show. It's an incredible vision, but for me Bigelow delivered her masterpiece with "The Hurt Locker." A real capper on an under-noticed career. And she'd be the first woman to win, which never hurts.

Best Picture

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• “Avatar” James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
• “The Blind Side” Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove and Broderick Johnson, Producers
• “District 9” Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
• “An Education” Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
• “The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier and Greg Shapiro, Producers
• “Inglourious Basterds” Lawrence Bender, Producer
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
• “A Serious Man” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
• “Up” Jonas Rivera, Producer
• “Up in the Air” Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: The Hurt Locker

The addition of five more Best Picture nominees is actually one of the least interesting things about this year's Oscar race.

The real intrigue is the change in voting procedures for best pic. I won't get too inside-baseball in my description,but suffice to say that instead of the winner being determined by the most number of votes, now the voters will rank all 10 nominees from highest to lowest. Then there's a series of eliminations based on how each film's votes were weighted.

To simplify, a film that gets a sizable number (though not a majority) of first-place votes, but many low-ranking votes, could end up losing to another movie that got more consistently high-ranking votes, but not as many top picks.

So "Avatar," which seems to be the front-runner, could end up losing if a large number of people rank it low on their list.

But, since "The Hurt Locker" was seen by so few people, I'm thinking a lot of Oscar voters aren't going to have seen it. So they might rank it middling or lower just to be safe. (And yes, I know the Academy members receive DVD screeners of the nominees. But the median age is pretty old, and they don't have time or willingness to watch everything.) Whereas I think pretty much everyone will have seen "Up in the Air" and ranked it high -- maybe not number one, but likely in the two-to-four range.

So if "Avatar" doesn't win, I'm going out on a limb and predicting "Up in the Air" to be this year's surprise winner. I still think "Avatar" will prevail, but that's my reading of the tea leaves that produces the unfortunate conclusion that "Hurt Locker" won't win.

Oscar's first impressions

Alright, I'm officially backpedaling on my declaration that "Up in the Air" would be the juggernaut at this year's Academy Awards.

It's looking more and more like "Avatar" is the movie to beat. "Up in the Air" and "The Hurt Locker" are the two stalking horses.

Complete list of nominees here.

Here's my other early reactions:

SURPRISES: Good showings by small movies few people have seen: "An Education," "A Serious Man," "The Secret of Kells," "The Last Station," "The Messenger," "In the Loop." Always nice to see the Academy look beyond box office grosses and popularity. Can you imagine the Golden Globes recognizing any of these films in a major category?

On the other hand, some of these films haven't opened yet or even been screened to local critics. I confess I was not even aware of the existence of "Kells."

WINNERS: "Avatar," "The Blind Side," "District 9" all got more recognition than expected. Best picture nomination for Blind Side was a real shock -- the movie's got mojo with old-school Hollywood types.

LOSERS: "Up in the Air" got a solid six nominations, but three of those were for acting. Nominations in the "minor" categories like editing, costumes, sound mixing, etc. are indications of a wellspring of support for a film. Don't see much here.

Despite great reviews, "The Damned United" got shut out. No Best Pic nomination for "Star Trek," proving there is a God, though it got four nods in the technical categories. Smaller films like "The Road," "Adventureland," "(500) Days of Summer" and "9" got stiffed.

Still can't believe "Where the Wild Things Are" got shut out. It was a difficult, personal film to be sure ... but no nods even for costumes, visual effects, sets? Crazy.

BEST DIRECTOR: No surprises at all here. Seems to be a toss-up between James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow. My heart's with Bigelow, though I loved both films.

BEST PICTURE: The move to 10 nominees was not a total disaster. It allowed an animated film to be recognized in the top category (although the wrong movie -- "Fantastic Mr. Fox" was better.)

An interesting quirk, though: Since "Up" was the only animated film to also receive a Best Pic nod, doesn't that mean a win in the animated category is all but automatic?

I think I'm going to go with my friend Roger Moore's take that only the five films that also got Best Director nominations are in the serious running. That means "Avatar," "Hurt Locker," "Precious," "Up in the Air" and "Inglourious Basterds" (ugh).

I really liked seeing "District 9" in there, even though it didn't make my Top 10. It's a bold, original film, the exact sort of thing the Academy should be honoring with these "second tier" Best Picture nominations.

There is some fat: I don't think "A Serious Man" or "The Blind Side" deserve nominations. "Basterds," either, but I recognize I'm probably in the minority on that.

BEST ACTRESS: Astonishingly, this looks like Sandra Bullock's to lose. She scored SAG and Golden Globe wins, and the fact that "Blind Side" got a Best Picture nod means Tinseltown nobility is ready to crown a new queen.

BEST ACTOR: Jeff Bridges is pretty much a certainty. They're saying, "He's been around for 50 years, he's been consistently great, been nominated five times: It's his time." George Clooney is the runner-up-in-waiting. Morgan Freeman was a slight surprise, since many were underwhelmed by "Invictus." Viggo Mortensen from "The Road" would've been my choice.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: The big surprise was Penelope Cruz scoring a nod for "Nine." It got three other nominations for costumes, art direction and best song. But clearly the "Chicago" magic fizzled.

Really happy to see Maggie Gyllenhaal recognized for her great work in "Crazy Heart." Jeff Bridges was amazing in it, so much so that I worried the hype surrounding his achievement would overshadow Gyllenhaal's own career-capping performance.

But Mo'Nique is a mortal lock to win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Woody Harrelson for "The Messenger" and Christopher Plummer for "The Last Station" were slight surprises, but only in the sense that they were among several contenders for the last couple of spots. Christoph Waltz can already clear a spot on his mantle.

Astonishingly, this is Stanley Tucci's first Oscar nod.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Very disappointed not to see nominations for "Adventureland" and "(500) Days of Summer." Neither "Basterds" or "Serious Man" deserves to be here.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Big surprise was "In the Loop." I haven't seen it, so I can't say if it belongs or not.

Interesting to note that "Avatar" did not get a screenplay nod. Perhaps an indication that "Hurt Locker" has the edge for Best Picture? It's very rare for a front runner for the top prize to not even be nominated in the screenwriting and/or directing categories.

A few other notes:

How could "A Single Man" not be nominated for art direction and costumes? Strange. Although "The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus" scored nods in both categories, which is something good.

I would just like to point out that "Sherlock Holmes," "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen," "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince," "Star Trek" and "Bright Star" all received nominations, and "The Road" and "Where the Wild Things Are" got bupkes. The only constant is inequity.

Golden Globe=Oscar? Not!

"Avatar" will not win the Academy Award for Best Picture.

Write it down, set it in stone. It. Will. Not. Happen.

I say this with confidence despite the blockbuster film -- which is nearly at $500 million domestic, and $1.6 billion worldwide -- winning the Golden Globe for best drama last night.

Why? Because historically, the Golden Globes have been a poor predictor when it comes to the top award.

For Best Picture, I still say "Up in the Air" is unstoppable. And while the Globes may respect boffo box office, the Oscar voters still have enough self-respect to vote for the better film over the popular choice (most of the time).

Although I will say the supporting acting winners from last night -- Mo'Nique for "Precious" and Christoph Waltz for "Inglourious Basterds" -- will likely mirror who wins the Oscar on March 7.

Jeff Bridges winning for "Crazy Heart" is also a good bet for the Oscar. He's got some strong competition in the Best Actor category -- Colin Firth in "A Single Man" and George Clooney in "Up in the Air" -- but momentum for the four-time nominee seems to be building.

But I believe the other acting category winners in the Golden Globes won't take home the Oscar. In Robert Downey Jr.'s case, I don't think he should get a nomination for "Sherlock Holmes," which is a piece of puffery that he's not even all that good in.

Meryl Streep will get her 1,078th nomination for "Julie & Julia," and Sandra Bullock may squeak in with a nomination for "The Blind Side." But despite each winning a Golden Globe -- Streep for comedy, Bullock for drama -- Carey Mulligan from "An Education" remains the front-runner.

I also doubt James Cameron will take home the Best Director statuette. I think it's a race between Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker" and "Up in the Air" man Jason Reitman.

"Up" winning the Golden Globe is probably an indication that it will prevail over "Fantastic Mr. Fox."

Among serious cinephiles, the Golden Globes are something of a joke. They're given out by an organization of dubious journalistic reputation that seems to exist solely for the purpose of staging the big red-carpet affair once a year.

I won't totally discount the influence of the Globes, though.

The nomination ballots for the Oscars close this Saturday, meaning there's a chance Academy voters could be influenced by Globe winners. It would be a shame if some of yesterday's winners -- I'm thinking of Bullock and Downey -- push out a more deserving nominee from the top acting categories.

But I just don't think Globe mojo will result in Oscar gold. If for no other reason, the Academy couldn't bear another spectacle of James Cameron labeling himself king of the world.

10 Best Picture nominees? Crazy!

I am not one of those curmudgeonly old-timers (even though I seem to spot more gray in my whiskers daily) who thinks everything, including movies, was better back when.

But I have to say I think the idea of having 10 Best Picture nominees at the Oscars, instead of the normal five, is crazy.

Let's face it: Most years the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has to struggle to come up with five legitimate contenders for the top award. Usually, there's a clear winner, one or two contenders, and a couple of nominees that have no chance of winning.

Padding out the list with five more wannabes is just going to dilute the honor of being nominated for the film industry's top prize.

Let's take the awards just given out a few months ago. "Slumdog Millionaire" was the clear favorite, and ended up winning. "The Reader" was considered the dark horse candidate, with "Benjamin Button" on the outside looking in. "Frost/Nixon" and "Milk" were hangers-on.

Now, I happen to think 2008 was a better-than average movie year. Here was my top 10 list, as published in December:

1. Wall·E
   
2. Slumdog Millionaire
   
3. The Reader
   
4. Traitor
   
5. Marley & Me
6. Iron Man
   
7. Frozen River
   
8. Defiance
9. Changeling
10. The Boy in the Striped Pajamas

I saw a couple more movies after I wrote the list that I would include if I was writing it now -- notably "Waltz with Bashir" and probably "Frost/Nixon."

Still, can you see the Academy nominating "Iron Man" and "Marley & Me"? I think not. And "Boy" and "Changeling" had wildly varied critical receptions.

The only possible benefit I can see to this change is if the Academy frees up its stranglehold on letting animated, documentary and foreign language films competing in the Best Picture category, in addition to their own. Even though several animated movies deserved to vie for the top prize in recent years ("Finding Nemo" and "Wall·E," notably), rules and tradition kept them out.

But mostly what I think will happen is that we'll see a whole lot of drek getting Best Picture nominations. It reminds me of 1991, one of the weakest years ever, when "Bugsy" and "Prince of Tides" -- two mediocre dramas -- got nods.

It's true that back in the 1930s and '40s, it was common for there to be up to 10 Best Picture nominations. But let's face it, 2009 is not 1939.

In 1939, you could have gotten to 10 legitimate Best Picture nominations, and kept going. ("Gone with the Wind," "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington," "The Wizard of Oz," "Dark Victory," "Drums Along the Mohawk," "Goodbye, Mr. Chips," "Gunga Din," "The Hunchback of Notre Dame," "Love Affair," "Ninotchka," "Of Mice and Men," "Only Angels Have Wings," "Stagecoach," "Wuthering Heights," "Young Mr. Lincoln," "The Rules of the Game.")

For 2009, so far I see two or three Best Picture contenders, and shaky ones at that: "The Soloist," "Up" and "Adventureland." The first and last died at the box office, and had critical receptions that were all over the place. So halfway through the year, that leaves us with one clear Best Picture nominee -- and that's assuming they allow for flexibility in letting animated films compete.

Do you really think we're going to find nine more films this year worthy of a Best Picture nod? I think not.