Oscars postmortem 2020

It was a historic night at the Oscars, though not a particularly great one if you think the best films should prevail. C'est la vie.

"Parasite" became the first foreign-language film to win Best Picture, and also the first Cannes Palme d'Or winner to also take the Academy Award in 65 years, the last one being "Marty."

It's pretty rare for my favorite movie to win Best Picture, so I'm used to disappointment. I liked "Parasite" but it didn't make my top 10 or even my list of also-rans. I found it intellectually interesting but not very emotionally engaging. None of the characters really stood out to me.

Oddly, the maid is the only person I found myself somewhat identifying with. It seemed like it borrowed too obviously from other movies, particularly "Shoplifters" and Kurosawa's "High and Low," and the Tarantino-esque bloodletting ending pretty well lost me.

Lack of competition

Still, in an overall weak year for films there wasn't really a strong frontrunner to oppose it. Even though "1917" won most of the key preliminary awards, including the usually predictive Director's Guild prize, I think the groundswell of support for picking a foreign film swept people up.

I hear a lot of people calling for this to be the start of a trend, with more foreign films vying in categories beyond the International Feature. "Cinema is the global language," yada yada.

Honestly, I hope not. Aside from truly exceptional films from abroad, the Academy Awards have always explicitly been part and parcel of the Hollywood industry.

As I've said before, whenever people complain about foreign films not winning more Oscars, I ask them to remind of all the American films that won a slew of prizes at the Korean/Spanish/Swedish/whatever film awards. There's nothing wrong with being an institution primarily aimed at celebrating work from a particular country or language.

Nobody complains when the BAFTAs always go to British movies.

(Notably, Cannes and many other film festivals that give out coveted awards are explicitly international by design.)

I've noticed more and more foreign films creeping into the short film, documentary and animated categories in recent years, to the point of dominating them. Only one out of five documentary features and live action shorts were set in America, and as it turned out they both won.

I guess nativism is fine for those "smaller" categories.

I think "1917" was hurt by not having any acting nominations. Actors make up the largest bloc of Academy voters, and they love movies with meaty parts. Casting a couple of unknowns who were as much stuntmen as thespians undoubtedly diminished its chances, even with a few name actors in bit parts.

Playing footsie with QT

So it fell to "Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood" to take up the slack, and I think in the end people recognized it as a wonderful-looking movie with some nice performances and a haphazard train wreck of a script. But I lost track of how many times Quentin Tarantino drew praise from the stage, even by people who weren't in his movie.

It's the oldest story in the world: young, rebellious upstart becomes part of the institution. Strange the way he's beloved in the #MeToo age, given the fetishistic way he divides up women's bodies into subjects for his leering gaze. In an age focused on giving women their voices, here's a guy who literally resurrected a starlet so he could render her wordless.

Bong Joon Ho paid homage to both Tarantino and Scorsese in his acceptance speech, and then seemed to realize he couldn't leave out the other two guys, so he slipped in some half-hearted praise.

It was definitely a spread-the-love around night, with the four for "Parasite" leading the parade. All four favorites in the acting categories won, which is a little boring. Usually when you go into the ceremony with four locks, it means there's going to be one upset.

My money was on Renee Zellweger, who ended up winning for "Judy," a perfectly fine but not great movie. That's actually a not uncommon occurrence for someone to win Best Actor or Actress without their film receiving any other nominations.

I honestly don't pay much attention to the speeches -- that's when I'm tweeting out my responses to the award -- though I couldn't help zero on Joaquin Phoenix's utterly kooky and cryptic callout for... not stealing baby cows' milk, or something. It's not too often you hear an Oscar speech that talks about artificial insemination.

Look, dude, eat what you want and I'll do the same.

The utterly placid "Toy Story 4" won animated feature, thus securing this as the Disney/Pixar award even when they produce substandard fare. Thus it goes that the "How to Train Your Dragon" saga comes to a close with zero Oscar wins, losing to a Mouse House movie every time. How depressing.

In terms of predictions scorecard, I was right on 20 out of 24, which is pretty good for me. I think my best ever was 21. I missed on musical score, best picture, best director and sound editing. I actually got all the short film categories right, which is usually where I run astray.

So we pull the shroud over 2019, a slightly subpar movie year imho. Many of my favorites didn't even rate nominations, which isn't all that unusual. In the scramble to find foreign films to honor, a lot of terrific homegrown ones like "Harriet," "Late Night" and "The Last Black Man in San Francisco" were overlooked.

Review: Oscar-nominated live action short films

Brotherhood

25 minutes

This powerful drama set in Tunisia looks at a traditional family of sheepherders torn asunder by international strife. The eldest son, Malek, returns home after disappearing for a year to help fight in Syria. The stern father, Mohamed, suspects that he has joined ISIS or similar Muslim extremist groups, and also is upset about the appearance of a mysterious wife covered head-to-toe in traditional garb. His wife is defensive of the son, and the bickering turns into ugly confrontations and haste choices. A headline subject translated to the family unit with grace and humanity.

A Sister

16 minutes

Absolutely riveting Belgian drama about an emergency operator receiving a call from a woman who’s been kidnapped and is being driven somewhere by her captor. The worker and the victim must negotiate a delicate conversation in which they do not talk directly about getting her urgent help, since the man is sitting next to her and can hear one side of the conversation. The operator has to impersonate the sister, Lulu, and they form a bond in just a few fraught moments. Adding to the tension, we can barely make out anything inside the darkened car. Taut and telling work by Delphine Girard.

The Neighbor's Window

21 minutes

The always-terrific Maria Dizzia is wonderful in this drama that's about sexuality, family, voyeurism and community. She plays a mother living in New York City with her husband (Greg Keller). They are bordering on middle age and hectored with two children and another on the way. A young, attractive couple moves into an apartment across the way and has frequent, athletic sex with the blinds open. They begin watcing them, at first annoyed and then a little obsessed. The youth and vitality they see reminds them of what's behind them; the contrasted reality of their own relationship, which exists in only the little snippets between constant childcare, results in conflict. Then the story becomes even deeper and richer. Marvelous storytelling from writer/director Marshall Curry; if it were possible to get an Oscar nomination for a short film, Dizzia deserves one.

NEFTA Football Club

17 minutes

An amusing little comedy with some social commentary on top. A pair of brothers, perhaps ages 7 and 13, are traveling across the Tunisian mountains on a motorcycle. They’re obsessed with football and arguing about who the best striker is. On a stop the little one encounters a strange sight: a lost donkey wearing headphones. The older brother is annoyed, until he peaks into the animal’s baskets and discovers something unexpected.

Saria

22 minutes

A harrowing tale based on the true story of a tragedy at a Guatemalan orphanage that’s more like a prison for children. Saria lives there with her slightly older sister after their mother was killed. The guards wander the halls with clanking keys at their built and a baton at the ready. Children are made to work all day when they’re not in class. Saria dreams of escaping to America, which they hear is a land of tres laches cake every day. Her sister is more concerned with the cute boy in a green shirt. A well-told tale of tragedy.

Oscars postmortem 2019

The 2019 Oscars telecast was a night of joy, inclusion and surprises. A lot of people who weren't expected to win or came from demographics that have traditionally been marginalized walked away with the prize. They spread the awards around, with no film winning more than four for "Bohemian Rhapsody."

You can see the full list of winners here.

My official Oscar predictions score: I got 11 out of 24 categories right. That's pretty low for me; I average around 15.

For at least half those I got wrong with the prediction, the film I wanted to win, did. I call that a victory.

In my defense, it was a notoriously difficult year to predict, with plenty of surprises. "Black Panther" dominated the "crew" categories. Rami Malek was the underdog for Best Actor but pulled it out due in part to a furious charm offensive.

Olivia Colman's win was the real shocker. I thought she was great, but it clearly was a supporting performance, just as Mahershala Ali's was a lead. Category-hopping is the new norm.

 Colman's victory, despite her charmingly flummoxed acceptance speech, almost certainly means Glenn Close never wins an Oscar. Think on that.

This year was historic for possibly the most diverse field of winners ever. Three out of the four acting winners were persons of color. We had first-ever wins for African-Americans in costumes and production design. Nine out of the last 10 best directors have been a woman, POC or foreign-born.

The expanded/younger/browner pool of Academy voters is showing dividends.

I see the "Green Book" haters are out in force this morning. That's fine. Some detractors have honest disagreements and good points to make. Some are willfully misreading the film's themes; others are projecting their own hangups and biases upon it. That's fine, too -- the loss is theirs.

It's true to say that the Academy has a long tradition of favoring uplifting, warm-hearted pictures over challenging ones. It is quite another thing to insist that represents irredeemable moral cowardice.

The Kevin Hart debacle has mostly served to remind us how superfluous the host role really is. Aside from the opening monologue, there really isn't much for him or her to do. I liked having lots of different celebrities onstage to introduce and present, though I don't know what business Serena Williams has as a presenter, GOAT tennis player (any gender) or not.

The "In Memoriam" feature always gets me, and this year was no exception. They seemed to be presenting the order chronologically, rather than by saving the biggies toward the end. Was happy to see William Goldman get a prominent slot (and a call-out by one of the presenters). Goodbye, Bill.

I don't understand the rationale in having Best Songs sung by people other than those who sang them in the movie. The contrast between most of the performances and the Lady Gaga/Bradley Cooper duet was just gigantic. It was the moment everyone will remember.

This is the difference between actors and stars.

I was happy to see "Roma," an indulgent bore, not take Best Picture -- though it did win for cinematography (mostly deservedly) and director. I fear this had less to do with love for "Green Book" as fear that bestowing the top prize on a streaming service movie would forever upend the theatrical exhibitor model. That day is coming, but it's thankfully not here yet.

The art of cinema is constantly changing, and new disruptors come to the fore to challenge the old ones. There was saying quoted during the night that I liked, "There are no waves; there is only the ocean." Despite its occasional storms, there's no more thrilling artistic landscape to navigate.

#Oscars90 reaction

They started the 90th Academy Awards ceremony a half-hour earlier but still didn't wrap things up until nearly midnight. I'm an Oscars junkie, but four hours is just too damn long for an awards show. Suggested areas to cut:

• Let the winners ramble in. But pare down the presenter banter. Especially when only about 50% of the jokes land. Think Harrison Ford: walk out, a line or two introducing the category, then reel off the nominees.
• Any presenter who appears to be altered/nervous/insane/senile. Yeah, I'm lookin' at you, Wes Studi...
• Full-on Best Song performances. I'd prefer a montage of the actual theatrical version of the song played against footage from its film. Maybe one minute each. This would have the benefit of eliminating horrendously off-key live performances by stars who don't sound so great when they're not in a recording studio getting 30 takes for each phrase. 
• Gimmicky jokes that take 10+ minutes to execute, like having stars go next door to shoot hot dogs at "just folks" so they can be appropriately dazzled by having showbiz gods in their midst. 

Overall, I was pretty happy with how the awards played out. Not a whole lot of surprises... which is in of itself, something of a surprise. I was planning on at least one Mark Rylance-style out-of-the-blue win.

I managed to run the table in my predictions in the "major" categories (Pictures, Director, screenplays, all four acting awards) but didn't do so great among the more technical awards. I got 15 out of 24 categories correct, which is about my average.

Short films continue to be my bane, missing on all three. In my defense, these are notoriously hard to predict as they're usually not screened for general audiences, and there's little buzz about them in the run-up to the Oscars. There's also no preliminarily awards (SAG, Golden Globes) with short film categories to make it easier. As opposed to, say, the Director's Guild Award, which almost always predicts the Oscar winner.

As often seems to be the case, I had the luck of having my preferred film win in a category in which I predicted another movie to win. Thus I was very pleased to have my favorite of 2018, "Blade Runner 2049," walk away with two wins for Visual Effects and Cinematography. Roger Deakins, arguably the greatest living D.P., finally got an Oscar after 14 tries. And it wasn't just a "it's his turn" gimme: no other film approached the visual splendor of "Blade Runner 2049."

There were a handful of head-scratchers, though. I thought "The Silent Child" the weakest of the live-action shorts (thought it was still good). Similarly, I felt "Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405" to be the least deserving of the documentary shorts. "Remember Me" is a rather forgettable Best Song standard bearer. I still contend "Icarus" is a rather disjointed documentary.

As far as the speeches go, there were some good ones and some OK ones. No instant classics like Matthew McConaughey's stem-winder a while back, though Frances McDormand came closest. She was brave and angry and true and genuine. And she got millions of people to Google "inclusion rider," only to find very little available online. I bet there's a lot more information out there today.

In terms of the politics, I actually thought most of the ceremony hit a nice balance between indignation, humor and righteousness. Nothing too egregious. About the only bit I didn't care for was Emma Stone introducing the director nominees as "four women and Greta Gerwig," because that's deliberately denigrating four artists at the expense of another one. And that's with Gergwig as my preferred pick to win that category.

Speaking of which, I am disappointed that "Lady Bird," my #2 film of the year, got blanked on wins, though I wasn't surprised by it. I thought Gerwig had a shot at Original Screenplay, but the cultural impact of "Get Out" was bound to prevail. The one that truly hurts is Laurie Metcalf losing Supporting Actress to Allison Janney. Janney was fine in a broadly written comedic relief role. But Metcalf really got down in to the bones of her character.

A lot of people seem to favor Jimmy Kimmel as host, but I'm rather indifferent. I'd like him more of he stuck to zingers and stopped trying to do comedic set-pieces, like the theater visit or the jet ski giveaway. My take on emceeing is you're there to facilitate the ceremony, not try to recreate a version of your own thing on somebody else's dime. Personally, I'd give the job to Billy Crystal until they have to roll him out on a stretcher.

It'll be interesting to see how "The Shape of Water" holds up as a Best Picture winner. I adored it, but it's a very atypical pick for an Academy that tends to look stiff, serious historical pieces, with something like "The King's Speech" having the classic Oscar pedigree.

"Shape" is difficult to even pigeonhole -- is it a horror film? Fantasy? Romance? Comedy? Musical? Historical parable? A bit of all of them, I'd say, on top of being a magnificent exploration of not one but six or seven characters. The love for Guillermo Del Toro was palpable in that room, and I think it's genuine respect for an artist who makes movies unlike anybody else's.

(Well, let's see how that plagiarism lawsuit turns out...)

Lightning fast Oscar reaction

• #MeToo gets James Franco. After winning the Golden Globe, he's now persona non grata.
•  Martin McDonagh of "Three Billboards" shunted aside for cool kids, aka first-time directors Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig. 
• Strong showing in general for "Get Out," the most overrated film of the year. 
• It's rare for youngsters to get a Best Actor nomination in their first big role, so Daniel Kaluuya and Timothee Chalamat are surprises. Stronger contenders were out there.
• Very surprised and happy to see Woody Harrelson to get a supporting actor nod for "Three Billboards." I much preferred him to Sam Rockwell (he was good, doing a caricature for most of the movie). The two will now compete for the prize.
• Jessica Chastain gets no love, and "Molly's Game" in general fared poorly with just a script nomination.
• The Indiana Film Journalists Association's screenplay award for "Logan" proves prescient. I'm tellin' ya, the IFJA should be a bigger part of the awards build-up fanfare!
• Disappointed by lack of Best Pic nomination for "The Florida Project." Small film, but it got plenty of attention.
• I think Denzel and Octavia could blow their noses and get nominations. They're like when aging NBA stars get voted into the All-Star game no matter how they played. Did anyone even see "Roman J. Israel, Esquire?"
• A plum for Plummer. What a career-capper, to be a last-minute add to a big movie and steal the whole show.

Review: Oscar-Nominated Short Films: Live Action

Henry
21 minutes
In this French-language drama/thriller, an elderly pianist is captured, drugged and forced to relive his experiences from World War II, when he met his beloved wife, and the years after. Is it all an illusion? A cruel medical experiment? Director Yan England’s lyrical meditation on aging and memory is somewhat predictable, but heartrending in its brutal truths. Gérard Poirier’s performance as Henry is terrific.
Score: 3 stars

Asad
16 minutes
This terrific little drama features a cast made up entirely of Somali refugees, in a portrait of their homeland that is both daunting and joyful. Asad (Harun Mohammed), a young boy who dreams of being a fisherman, is disgusted by his friends working for the pirates who harass commercial and private vessels. He prefers the company of Erasto (Ibrahim Moallim Hussein), a Hemingway-esque old man of the sea who offers advice on catching fish and more. Powerful, emotional and deeply authentic.
Score: 3.5 stars

Death Of A Shadow
20 minutes
Eerily beautiful, elegant and haunting, "Death Of A Shadow" is a Dutch-language fantasy that crosses borders of time, space and human feeling. Nathan Rijckx (Matthias Schoenaerts) is a young bespectacled man who wanders a European village with a strange device in his hands that resembles a camera. By peering through it, he can see people at their moment of death and capture their shadow. He labors at the behest of a shadowy figure who collects these disturbing replicas as art. It's a deal with the devil -- 10,000 days and 10,000 images, in exchange for his own life back. But then he meets a young nurse (Laura Verlinden) who makes him question his quest. Writer/director Tom Van Avermaet has given us a small, grim masterstroke.
Score: 3.5 stars

Curfew
19 minutes
Quirky and affecting, “Curfew” is about a day in the life of Richie, a young drug addict – which was also supposed to be the last day of his life. He had just opened his wrist with a razor blade when he gets a call from his estranged sister (Kim Allen), begging him to watch her daughter Sophia (a precocious Fatima Ptacek) for the day. He agrees, leading to wonderfully strange excursion as the morose uncle trades jabs and then more genuine exchanges with his spunky niece. Written, directed and starring Shawn Christensen, a born storyteller.
Score: 3.5 stars

Buzkashi Boys
30 minutes
Ahmad (Jawanmard Paiz) and Rafi (Fawad Mohammadi) are two Afghani boys who are best friends despite being polar opposites. Rafi is the loyal son of a traditional blacksmith, toiling away making ax handles from dawn to dusk. Ahmad is a bastard Kabul street urchin, surviving on scams, an outsized personality and petty theft to get by. They’re united in their love for buzkashi, an ancient sport similar to polo, but played with a dead goat instead of a ball. Both dream of finding their own destinies. But then a tragedy destabilizes their young lives. A fine piece of observational drama.
Score: 3 stars

Review: "Oscar-Nominted Short Films: Animation"

Maggie Simpson in “The Longest Daycare”
5 minutes
In this cheeky short from the creators of TV’s “The Simpsons,” baby Maggie is deposited at the Orwellian “Ayn Rand School for Tots.” Denied the elevated bliss of the Gifted class, she is relegated to the mundane hell of “Nothing Special” education, where she rescues a butterfly from a bully. Wordless, lyrical and surprisingly touching.
Score: 3 stars out of four

Adam and Dog
15 minutes
Minkyu Lee’s take on Adam and Eve’s fall from grace is seen through the eyes of a scrappy little dog. The largely hand-drawn animation is simple and elegant in depicting a prehistoric jungle paradise where Adam and the dog scamp and play. When Eve arrives and their banishment follows, it is the dog alone of the animal world who follows them out of Paradise. A subtle salute to man’s (and woman’s) best friend.
Score: 3 stars

Paperman
6 minutes
This delightful black-and-white romantic fantasia from Pixar depicts a young office drone trying to attract the attention of the winsome gal in the next building. They met briefly on the train platform, resulting in the film’s only splash of color. His efforts leads to a magical flight of paper airplanes that point the way to their (un)likely destination. A beautiful little cinematic gem featuring the ultimate Meet Cute.
Score: 3.5 stars

Head Over Heels
10 minutes
The stop-motion animation is a bit crude, especially when compared to contemporary feature films like “ParaNorman.” But writer/director Timothy Reckart’s little metaphorical paean to love and aging is cute and sweet. An old married couple live upside-down from each other – literally. Their house is divided into M.C. Escher-like configurations, with the floor for her and the ceiling for him (or the other way around, depending on how you look at it). But then something goes bump to turn their lives around.
Score: 2.5 stars

Fresh Guacamole
2 minutes
How much fun can you pack into 101 seconds of film? Plenty, as this clever, experimental piece directed by Adam Pesapane shows. A knife-wielding chef cuts open non-food objects – light bulbs, baseballs, even a grenade – to make a very unique bowl of guac. The hyper-realistic animation is astonishing.
Score: 3 stars

Oscar picks and predictions

In a matter of weeks, this year's race for the Academy Awards has gone from an exciting wide-open contest to one of dull certainty.

"The King's Speech" has emerged as a strong frontrunner, and is setting up for a commanding sweep of the Oscars come Sunday. With "The Social Network," last fall's critical darling, fading quickly and "Speech" riding a box office wave almost unprecedented for a talkie historical film, the chance of any big surprises has been almost entirely drained from the proceedings.

I'm both heartened and dismayed by this development. On the one hand, there's no denying "The King's Speech" represents filmmaking for grown-ups -- the sort of mature, splendidly-crafted movie that critics complain there isn't enough of.

But "Speech" has a stale tang that's hard to deny, like a whiff of mothballs in a closet full of resplendent finery. A period piece about the trials and tribulations of the rich nobility, gilded with fine costumes and sets, and capped off by a conclusion that is as preordained as it is uplifting, "The King's Speech" seems to have been custom-made as Oscar bait.

I gave the film a very favorable review, while noting that it "lacks in novelty." But it did not make my Top 10 list for 2010, or receive an outpouring of adoration from critics.

Metacritic.com, which aggregates the opinions of the nation's highest-profile movie reviewers, lists only three who ranked "The King's Speech" as the best film of the year (compared with 22 for "The Social Network"), and it only ranked eighth in terms of total appearances on Top 10 lists.

One benefit of the "Speech" tidal wave: It makes prognosticating this year's Oscars a much easier affair.

Here then are my predictions of the winners, as well as my pick of who should win. I'll also highlight what I think are the Academy's snubs and flubs, by indicating an unworthy nominee and more deserving one.

BEST PICTURE

For reasons just outlined, "The King's Speech" will win, period. It has swept all the preliminary awards, with the exception of the Golden Globes, which are a joke. "The Social Network" has the only chance of an upset, however slim.

The list of 10 nominees is a mostly solid one, and I was pleased to see the tiny "Winter's Bone" get a nod. Though I found "Black Swan" to be pretentious drek.

Prediction: "The King's Speech"
Pick: "The Social Network"
Snubs & flubs: "Blue Valentine" instead of "Black Swan"

BEST DIRECTOR

This category is most notable for the absence of Christopher Nolan, whose "Inception" was the most original and audacious film of 2010. David Fincher of "Network" was considered a shoo-in, but Tom Hooper of "Speech" won the Director's Guild award, which nearly always predicts the winner.

Nolan's snub is vexing, but personally I thought Debra Granik of "Winter's Bone" had the finest touch behind the camera last year, and she also wasn't nominated.

Prediction: Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"
Pick: David Fincher, "The Social Network"
Snubs & flubs: Debra Granik, "Winter's Bone" for Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"

BEST ACTRESS

It's between Annette Bening for "The Kids Are All Right" and Natalie Portman for "Black Swan." Despite my distaste for "Swan," Portman's strong, haunting performance is the only thing that gave that film any life. And she won the Screen Actors Guild award, a strong push.

Personally, I deemed Bening even better in the little-seen "Mother and Child." But 20-year-old Jennifer Lawrence commanded the screen in "Winter's Bone," eclipsing them both.

Prediction: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Pick: Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
Snubs & flubs: No complaints -- a solid list in an underwhelming year for lead female roles.

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, a nominee for "True Grit," was the winner last year because of the widespread feeling "it was his time." The same can be said this go-round for Colin Firth, who does give a magnificent, layered turn as the arrogant but self-doubting monarch in "The King's Speech."

For my money, James Franco gave the performance of the year -- he was emotionally vulnerable in a way few actors ever dare to expose themselves.

Tough to knock anybody off this list, though the absence of Ryan Gosling when his "Blue Valentine" partner Michelle Williams was nominated grates.

Prediction: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
Pick: James Franco, "127 Hours"
Snubs & flubs: Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine" for Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nice to see some industry love for Melissa Leo, a fine character actress who broke out with "Frozen River" a couple years ago. Helena Bonham Carter was competent in a role of few challenges, while Dianne Wiest had a knockout scene in "Rabbit Hole."

Many think Hailee Steinfeld deserved a leading actress nomination for "True Grit" ... I don't. She was terrific, but it's a movie about Rooster Cogburn.

Prediction: Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
Pick: Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"
Snubs & flubs: Dianne Wiest, "Rabbit Hole" for Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Geoffrey Rush of "The King's Speech" seemed to have this category sewed up, but Christian Bale won the SAG award for "The Fighter." And it's a role unlike anything he's done before in his career, playing a guy who's a total trainwreck.

But I thought John Hawkes, a surprise nominee for "Winter's Bone," was better.

"Get Low" was touted as the Robert Duvall show, but Bill Murray stole scenes prodigiously.

Prediction: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
Pick: John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"
Snubs & flubs: Bill Murray, "Get Low" for Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Christopher Nolan's best chance to get a golden statue for "Inception" will be in the screenplay category, traditionally a place for consolation prizes. If "The King's Speech" steamrolls, though, he may get shut out. The Writers Guild went for Nolan, but I fear it's not enough.

"Another Year" is a minor Mike Leigh work,while "Blue Valentine" deserved its status as Sundance darling.

Prediction: David Seidler, "The King's Speech"
Pick: Christopher Nolan, "Inception"
Snubs & flubs: "Blue Valentine" for "Another Year"

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This is the one category "The Social Network" seems to have locked up. TV guy Aaron Sorkin wrote a masterful script blending truth, fiction and social commentary.

"Toy Story 3" got an unexpected script nod, but if you want to honor animated films, start with the best of 2010, "How to Train Your Dragon."

Prediction: Aaron Sorkin, "The Social Network"
Pick: Aaron Sorkin, "The Social Network"
Snubs & flubs: "How to Train Your Dragon" for "Toy Story 3"

BEST ANIMATED FILM

With other nods for Best Pic and screenplay, "Toy Story 3" is a mortal lock. "How to Train Your Dragon" was fresher and poignant.

The arbitrary decision to limit the nominees to three shut out the deserving "Tangled." I agree that neither "Megamind" or "Despicable Me" are worthy, but what's wrong with having four nominees?

Prediction: "Toy Story 3"
Pick: "How to Train Your Dragon"
Snubs & flubs: "Tangled"

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Prediction: "Waste Land"
Pick: "Exit Through the Gift Shop"
Snubs & flubs: "Freedom Riders" for "Gasland"

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Prediction: "Strangers No More"

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Prediction: "Incendies"
Pick: "Biutiful"
Snubs & flubs: "Lebanon" for "Outside the Law"

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Prediction: "The King's Speech"
Pick: "True Grit"
Snubs & flubs: "Winter's Bone" for "The Social Network"

MAKEUP

Prediction: "Barney's Version"

ART DIRECTION

Prediction: "The King's Speech"
Pick: "Alice in Wonderland"

COSTUME DESIGN

Prediction: "The King's Speech"
Pick: "Alice in Wonderland"


ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Prediction: "Day & Night"
Pick: "Madagascar, a Journey Diary"

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

Prediction: "Na Wewe"
Pick: "God of Love"

FILM EDITING

Prediction: "The King's Speech"
Pick: "127 Hours"
Snubs & flubs: "Inception" for "Black Swan"

SOUND MIXING

Prediction: "The King's Speech"
Pick: "Inception"

SOUND EDITING

Prediction: "Inception"
Pick: "Inception"

ORIGINAL SONG

Prediction: "We Belong Together" by Randy Newman, "Toy Story 3"
Pick: "If I Rise," A.R. Rahman, Dido and Rollo Armstrong, "127 Hours"

ORIGINAL SCORE

Prediction: "The King's Speech" by Alexandre Desplat
Pick: "How to Train Your Dragon" by John Powell

Review: Oscar-nominated short films

LIVE-ACTION

"The Confession" -- Director Tanel Toom makes a confident, audacious presentation in his third film about two young English boys preparing for their first confession. Beautifully shot in the countryside, the film has a clear sense of place and purpose. The boys horse around with a farmer's scarecrow, leading to unexpectedly tragic events. Haunting and poetic.
3.5 stars out of four

"The Crush" -- A spitfire-funny black comedy from writer/director Michael Creagh about an 8-year-old British school boy named Ardal (an intense Oran Creagh) who's got a thing for his teacher. So much so that he challenges her scuzzy boyfriend to a duel. I nearly busted a gut when, assured that a child won't shoot a man, the boyfriend cries, "Have you not seen 'City of God'?!"
3 stars

"God of Love" -- Writer/director/star Luke Matheny’s comic romance is a tidy gem. It's about a singer in a jazz ensemble smitten with his drummer. Then he gets his hands on some magic darts that make anyone stuck by them susceptible to wooing. Matheny has an offbeat but undeniable onscreen charisma, and is an assured young filmmaker who knows how to craft a story.
4 stars

"Na Wewe" -- This nerve-jangling drama has a lesson to teach about the ways we divide ourselves into factions, and how useless these distinctions ultimately are. A Frenchman's car breaks down in Burundi in 1994, so he catches a ride with a group stopped by militia looking for Tutsis to kill. Harrowing, with a sly, unexpected humor.
3 stars

"Wish 143" -- A splendidly-acted comedy/drama about David, a British boy (good year for them) who's dying of cancer and declares his last wish to be losing his virginity. Samuel Peter Holland is wry and affecting as lad with very normal urges caught in extraordinary circumstances. With Jim Carter as a drolly understanding priest.
3.5 stars


ANIMATED

"Day & Night" -- The shorts that precede Pixar features are a place for the animation behemoth to showcase new talent. Most are clever and fun, but I found "Day & Night" to be a weak example. Night and Day are personified as creatures whose bodies are windows to the world at different times. It's visually inventive, but seems designed more for the animators' pleasure than the audience's.
2.5 stars

"The Gruffalo" -- Charming computer animated tale about a little mouse who travels through the woods on the way to an acorn tree, and bluffs his way past three predators -- a fox, owl and snake -- with the story of a gruesome beast. Based on the children's book, rendered beautifully and in rhyme.
3 stars

"Let's Pollute" -- Cheeky bit of reverse psychology encouraging people to buy twice as much as they need, never recycle and throw everything away after a single use -- all to an accompanying narration in the style of mid-century newsreel announcer, where every sentence is an exclamation. Despite the tongue-in-cheek humor, still comes off a bit preachy.
2.5 stars

"The Lost Thing" -- This touching and quirky Australian short is about the things that just don't fit. A boy finds a strange red contraption on the beach. It sprouts octopus arms and legs and befriends him, but doesn't seem to have much purpose in a cold, sterile world of rules and expectations. The imagination and animation, especially in the finale, are dazzling.
3.5 stars

"Madagascar, a Journey Diary" -- A visually gorgeous rendering of exactly what the title says. The filmmakers employ a variety of animation styles, including stop-motion, but the dominant method resembles brightly-hued watercolor painting -- all set to a jaunty, infectious musical score employing native songs. Like an 11-minute vacation.
3.5 stars

Oscar nomination reaction

The 2010 Academy Awards nomination surprised and largely pleased me. I was deathly afraid that two of my favorites, "127 Hours" and "Winter's Bone," would not get love from the Academy because neither managed to light much of a fire at the box office.

I was especially pleased to see acting nominations for Jennifer Lawrence and John Hawkes from "Bone" -- two of the best performances I saw this year. James Franco (who's co-hosting the ceremony Feb. 27) got a nomination for his performance in "127 Hours," but he has a much higher profile than the other two.

"The King's Speech" led the field with 12 nominations, an indication of a strong swell of support from the Academy's older voters. Should it now be the favorite for Best Picture? I still think "The Social Network" is tops.

A lot of dap for "Toy Story 3," including becoming the third animated feature to get a Best Pic nod, plus a screenplay nominations. I still think "How to Train Your Dragon" and "Tangled" are better films.

Films that did better than predicted: "Rabbit Hole," "Winter's Bone," "Toy Story 3," "The Kids Are All Right," "The Fighter," "Biutiful" (a surprise -- and deserved -- nom for Javier Bardem).

Films that did worse: "Inception" (no Christopher Nolan directing nomination), "Never Let Me Go" (totally shut out), "Blue Valentine," "Tangled."

Snubs: No nod for Julianne Moore from "The Kids Are All Right"? Co-stars Mark Ruffalo and Annette Bening both got nominations, and her performance was no less compelling.

Ryan Gosling, in one of the most nuanced roles of the year in "Blue Valentine," got the shaft. Co-star Michelle Williams did get a nod, though. This is a movie built around two performances, and to recognize only one of them feel strange and bitter.

No Diane Wiest nod for "Rabbit Hole," though not surprising. It's a small but meaty role in a film few people have seen. Aaron Eckhart also got snubbed, which is strange in the same way as "Blue Valentine," in that's a movie about a relationship between two people.

A lack of a directing nod for Christopher Nolan is vexing. Here was one of the most truly original visions of the year, and to not recognize the man behind it strikes me as bizarre and cruel. Maybe voters felt a screenwriting nomination was sufficient. It wasn't.

Another acting nomination I wasn't really expecting but would have liked to see was Andrew Garfield for "The Social Network." Armie Hammer was amusing as the Winklevi, but it's just not an Oscar-caliber role or performance.

Although my prediction of a youth movement in the acting nominations proved largely true, with by my count nine of the 20 nods going to actors under the age of 40.

The Overrated: "The King's Speech" is a solid, well-made film, but about as original as an Andy Warhol soup can print. I think Film Yapper Nick Rogers said it best in his Facebook post: "Two great performances from actors who need neither good direction nor scripts to excel."

I liked "Toy Story 3," but c'mon. It was the third-go round with some very familiar characters and settings. You can't tell me certain parts of the plot felt like they were on auto-pilot (the escape from daycare, etc.). So a screenplay nod here seems really misplaced.

I know it's a nice-looking film, but there's just something wrong with the world when "Alice in Wonderland" earns more Academy Award nominations than "Blue Valentine," "The American," "Lebanon," "Never Let Me Go" and "Tangled" combined.

And, thank God, we avoided a Mila Kunis nomination for "Black Swan." I'm not a fan of that film, but Kunis was borderline horrible in it, and I couldn't believe she generated talk about a nod. No Milli Vanilli Moment for these Oscars.

Here's the complete list:

Best motion picture of the year

     Black Swan
     The Fighter
     Inception
     The Kids Are All Right
     The King's Speech
     127 Hours
     The Social Network
     Toy Story 3
     True Grit
     Winter's Bone

Performance by an actor in a leading role

     Javier Bardem in "Biutiful"
     Jeff Bridges in "True Grit"
     Jesse Eisenberg in "The Social Network"
     Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"
     James Franco in "127 Hours"


Performance by an actor in a supporting role

     Christian Bale in "The Fighter"
     John Hawkes in "Winter's Bone"
     Jeremy Renner in "The Town"
     Mark Ruffalo in "The Kids Are All Right"
     Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech"


Performance by an actress in a leading role

     Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right"
     Nicole Kidman in "Rabbit Hole"
     Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter's Bone"
     Natalie Portman in "Black Swan"
     Michelle Williams in "Blue Valentine"


Performance by an actress in a supporting role

     Amy Adams in "The Fighter"
     Helena Bonham Carter in "The King's Speech"
     Melissa Leo in "The Fighter"
     Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit"
     Jacki Weaver in "Animal Kingdom"

Best animated feature film of the year

     How to Train Your Dragon
     The Illusionist
     Toy Story 3


Art Direction

     Alice in Wonderland (Walt Disney), Robert Stromberg (Production Design), Karen O'Hara (Set Decoration)
     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.), Stuart Craig (Production Design), Stephenie McMillan (Set Decoration)
     Inception (Warner Bros.), Guy Hendrix Dyas (Production Design), Larry Dias and Doug Mowat (Set Decoration)/span>
     The King's Speech (Paramount), Eve Stewart (Production Design), Judy Farr (Set Decoration)
     True Grit (Paramount), Jess Gonchor (Production Design), Nancy Haigh (Set Decoration)


Achievement in Cinematography

     Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Matthew Libatique
     Inception (Warner Bros.) Wally Pfister
     The King's Speech (The Weinstein Company) Danny Cohen
     The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Jeff Cronenweth
     True Grit (Paramount) Roger Deakins


Achievement in costume design

     Alice in Wonderland (Walt Disney) Colleen Atwood
     I Am Love (Magnolia Pictures) Antonella Cannarozzi
     The King's Speech (The Weinstein Company) Jenny Beavan
     The Tempest (Miramax) Sandy Powell
     True Grit (Paramount) Mary Zophres


Achievement in directing

     Black Swan (Fox Searchlight), Darren Aronofsky
     The Fighter (Paramount), David O. Russell
     The King's Speech (The Weinstein Company), Tom Hooper
     The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing), David Fincher
     True Grit (Paramount), Joel Coen and Ethan Coen


Best Documentary Feature

     Exit through the Gift Shop (Producers Distribution Agency) Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz A Paranoid Pictures Production
     Gasland Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic A Gasland Production
     Inside Job (Sony Pictures Classics) Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs A Representational Pictures Production
     Restrepo (National Geographic Entertainment) Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger An Outpost Films Production
     Waste Land Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley (Arthouse Films) An Almega Projects Production


Best documentary short subject

     Killing in the Name
     Poster Girl    
Strangers No More
     Sun Come Up
     The Warriors of Qiugang


Achievement in film editing

     Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Andrew Weisblum
     The Fighter Paramount Pamela Martin
     The King's Speech (The Weinstein Company) Tariq Anwar
     127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) Jon Harris
     The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter

Best foreign language film of the year

     Biutiful Mexico
     Dogtooth Greece
     In a Better World Denmark
     Incendies Canada
     Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi) Algeria


Achievement in makeup

     Achievement in makeup (Sony Pictures Classics) Adrien Morot
     The Way Back (Newmarket Films in association with Wrekin Hill Entertainment and Image Entertainment) Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
     The Wolfman (Universal) Rick Baker and Dave Elsey


Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

     How to Train Your Dragon (Paramount) John Powell
     Inception (Warner Bros.) Hans Zimmer
     The King's Speech (The Weinstein Company) Alexandre Desplat
     127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) A.R. Rahman
     The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross


Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

     Coming Home from Country Strong (Sony Pictures Releasing (Screen Gems)) Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
     I See the Light from Tangled (Walt Disney) Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
     If I Rise from 127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
     We Belong Together from Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney) Music and Lyric by Randy Newman


Best animated short film

     Day & Night (Walt Disney) A Pixar Animation Studios Production Teddy Newton
     The Gruffalo A Magic Light Pictures Production Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
     Let's Pollute A Geefwee Boedoe Production Geefwee Boedoe
     The Lost Thing (Nick Batzias for Madman Entertainment) A Passion Pictures Australia Production Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
     Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary) A Sacrebleu Production Bastien Dubois


Best live action short film

     The Confession (National Film and Television School) A National Film and Television School Production Tanel Toom
     The Crush (Network Ireland Television) A Purdy Pictures Production Michael Creagh
     God of Love A Luke Matheny Production Luke Matheny
     Na Wewe (Premium Films) A CUT! Production Ivan Goldschmidt
     Wish 143 A Swing and Shift Films/Union Pictures Production Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite


Achievement in sound editing

     Inception (Warner Bros.) Richard King
     Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney) Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
     Tron: Legacy (Walt Disney) Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
     True Grit (Paramount) Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
     Unstoppable (20th Century Fox) Mark P. Stoeckinger


Achievement in sound mixing

     Inception (Warner Bros.) Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
     The King's Speech (The Weinstein Company) Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
     Salt (Sony Pictures Releasing) Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
     The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
     True Grit (Paramount) Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland


Achievement in visual effects

     Alice in Wonderland (Walt Disney) Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.) Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
     Hereafter (Warner Bros.) Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell
     Inception (Warner Bros.) Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
     Iron Man 2 (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment, Distributed by Paramount) Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick


Adapted screenplay

     127 Hours (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
     The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing), Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
     Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Michael Arndt. Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
     True Grit (Paramount), Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
     Winter's Bone (Roadside Attractions), Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini


Original screenplay

     Another Year (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Mike Leigh
     The Fighter (Paramount), Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson. Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
     Inception (Warner Bros.), Written by Christopher Nolan
     The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features), Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
     The King's Speech

Interview: Jason Reitman

Jason Reitman wears a gray skullcap and red plaid shirt. Together with a week's worth of dark stubble and an unlined, sharp-angled face framing penetrating eyes, he could easily pass as a slightly older, slightly more focused student on the campus of DePauw University, about an hour west of Indianapolis.

But at 32, Reitman has already achieved a reputation as one of Hollywood's top filmmakers. Despite the comic undertow of his three feature films -- "Thank You For Smoking," "Juno" and last year's "Up in the Air" -- there's a sobriety to his movies, as well as a consistent personal vision lacking in most of Tinseltown's hired guns.

Reitman is at Depauw to give a talk Monday evening to students and faculty at Kresge Auditorium titled, "Finding Your Place Up in the Air."

Speaking to media a few hours before while munching on peanut M&Ms, Reitman laid out his notion of being true to your own voice and how he approaches making movies -- which turn out to be one in the same.

How does he feel about the performance of "Up in the Air" at the Academy Awards? He pulls no punches: "Well, we went zero-for-six, so kinda shitty ... If you went 0-for-6 shooting in basketball, you probably wouldn't be thrilled."

He's never had to face someone like Ryan Bingham, the cool corporate heel played by George Clooney in the film: Reitman has never lost his job. But he has had to fire people, and says it isn't a fun experience. His method is to just be as truthful with the person getting axed as possible.

The son of comedy director Ivan Reitman ("Ghost Busters"), Jason bristles slightly at suggestions he achieved success at such a young age through nepotism. He points to his hustling days directing commercials, music videos and short films. While studying film at University of Southern California, he started a business distributing calendars to students as a way to make money to finance his nascent cinematic efforts.

But he also clearly has affection for his father, citing his advice as the best he ever received: "He said, 'Don't worry about it being funny. Your barometer for comedy is nowhere as good as your barometer for honesty. So when you're on set, don't ask yourself if this is funny, because you don't know. Sometimes people will laugh on set; sometimes they won't. Ask yourself, does this feel real? Is it truthful? Is it authentic?'"

Reitman has been giving these talks at universities and other venues almost since the start of his feature film career. He likes to encourage young(er) people to be true to their own voice, whether it's in filmmaking or any other vocation.

He does admit that he's not quite so forthcoming in these talks as Kevin Smith -- Reitman says he admires the "Clerks" director -- who's been known to answer any and all questions, even about his showbiz rivalries and sex life.

An avid film-goer, Reitman says his only financial indulgence after two hit films in a row was building a theater in his home with a 12-foot screen. Saying he's "never been interested in the silly stuff" of fame and fortune, he pointedly contrasts himself with Brett Ratner of the "Rush Hour" movies, who built an entire nightclub in his house.

Tiptoeing through the area of the unspoken Hollywood law against bad-mouthing other people's movies, Reitman says he does this with his friends all the time, but thinks it wouldn't be good manners to be in your face about it.

"You have tact -- don't just go out and be a jerk. My fellow filmmakers, we talk about other movies all the time. Like would I go to another director and say, 'Hey, you movie sucked!' I wouldn't say that."

After someone (me) pointed out that there are no other directors in the room, Reitman deigned to express his disappointment in Tim Burton's latest effort.

"I didn't like 'Alice in Wonderland.' I just didn't even know what it was trying to say. I liked the original 'Alice in Wonderland,' I thought this was just kind of ... a hodgepodge of shots."

He says he's not a big fan of the recent push to distribute movies in 3D -- for practical as well as artistic reasons. "As a storytelling experience goes, I preferred 'Avatar' in 2D to 3D. Some of that has to do with my eyes. My eyes just can't focus well in 3D. For some reason, things come across soft and my eyes feel strained... For me, there hasn't so far been a movie that has been enhanced by being 3D."

Reitman doesn't fret about box office tallies, other than the freedom monetary success allows him to pursue the artistic kind. "I've never really worried about what's going to be commercially successful. And I've been fortunate so far in that what tends to interest me tends to interest other people."

As for the future, Reitman is working on a screenplay adaptation of Joyce Maynard's novel "Labor Day," about a 13-year-old boy whose life is changed by an encounter with an escaped convict.

"I think about my career and the movies I want to make over time. Absolutely. I would like there to be a continuity of personal (themes) throughout all my work. I don't know if I'll be able to keep that up. But that's my aspiration. I don't have to see myself in (my films), but I do want to explore something that I'm feeling -- most often a question that I have. I'm looking for the answer, and sometimes making the movie helps me find it."

Did he get any answers out of "Up in the Air?"

"Yeah. They're not satisfying answers, but they are answers. The biggest answer I got in 'Up in the Air' is that there are no answers, which is an answer in of itself. Life is very complicated. And you will never know if you made the right decision or not in life. And there is a value in living alone, and there is a value of living connected. That's it."

World's greatest Oscar predictions

Here it is: The most complete, boldest, brashest Oscar predictions evah!

You know how most critics and pundits, in offering up their prognostication of who will win this Sunday's Academy Awards, tend to stick to eight or nine so-called major awards? Not here, folks. I'm making predictions in all 24 categories, including Best Catering for the Most Hirsute Short Animated Foreign Language Film.

Let's be frank: How hard is it to look Nostradamus-like when you only stick to the acting, directing and writing categories? Especially this year, when all four acting awards appear to be locked up. It's kind of a cop-out to brag that you went 6-for-8 in your predictions when half of them were gimmes.

So without further ado, here are my predictions for absolutely everything. I'll also be making my own personal picks in most categories.

Cinematography

• “Avatar” Mauro Fiore
• “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” Bruno Delbonnel
• “The Hurt Locker” Barry Ackroyd
• “Inglourious Basterds” Robert Richardson
• “The White Ribbon” Christian Berger

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: The Hurt Locker

My overarching take on this year's Oscars is that most voters who have seen "The Hurt Locker" believe it's a superior film to "Avatar." The problem is, everyone's seen "Avatar," while hardly anyone saw "The Hurt Locker." The former is certainly a monumental achievement. James Cameron and Fiore combined live-action and photo-realistic animation in a (nearly) seamless blend. But Ackroyd's work had a tremendous kinetic energy that drove the movie. The stalking horse here is the German film "The White Ribbon," with its stark, bleak yet beautiful black-and-white imagery.

Art Direction

• 
• “Avatar” Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
• “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro; Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
• “Nine” Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
• “Sherlock Holmes” Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
• “The Young Victoria” Art Direction: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Maggie Gray

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: Avatar

Great group of nominees; I'm particularly happy to see Terry Gilliam's "Imaginarium" receive some kind of recognition -- it's certainly a visually sumptuous film. "Sherlock" was borderline awful, but its gritty Urban Victoria look was terrific. But I think this is a category where people are going to reward "Avatar" for its sheer spectacle.

Actress

• Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”
• Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”
• Carey Mulligan in “An Education”
• Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
• Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”

Gonna win: Sandra Bullock

Oughtta win: Meryl Streep

Best supporting Actress

• Penélope Cruz in “Nine”
• Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”
• Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”
• Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”
• Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Gonna win: Mo'Nique

Oughtta win: Mo'Nique

Best Actor

• Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”
• George Clooney in “Up in the Air”
• Colin Firth in “A Single Man”
• Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”
• Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”

Gonna win: Jeff Bridges

Oughtta win: Jeff Bridges

Best supporting actor

• Matt Damon in “Invictus”
• Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”
• Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”
• Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”
• Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”

Gonna win: Christoph Waltz

Oughtta win: Stanley Tucci

I'm combining the discussion for all four acting awards into one, since they're the least-interesting races this year. Bridges, Mo'Nique and Waltz are total locks, and Bullock looks to be the heavy favorite. All four have cleaned up in the "precursor" awards -- Golden Globes, SAG Awards, etc. I think Streep gave the best performance, but having been nominated and won multiple times, Academy voters may feel like she's gotten her due. The lack of other nominations for "Julie & Julia" also hurts.

The reverse is true for Bridges, who's been a star for 40 years and been nominated four times without winning. The feeling is "it's his time." Waltz was the best thing about the incredibly uneven "Inglourious Basterds," and Mo'Nique gave her villain role a humanistic core that pushed it into cinematic greatness. I still can't believe this is Tucci's first nomination. Ditto for Christopher Plummer.

Costume design

• “Bright Star” Janet Patterson
• “Coco before Chanel” Catherine Leterrier
• “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” Monique Prudhomme
• “Nine” Colleen Atwood
• “The Young Victoria” Sandy Powell

Gonna win: Coco Before Chanel

Oughtta win: The Young Victoria

When it comes to costumes, I grade on degree of difficulty. My take is that it isn't all that hard to design outfits for "Coco," since you can use the real clothing designs of Chanel as inspiration. Still a terrific-looking bunch of costumes, though. I'll take "Young Victoria" since they had to do the royal stuff as well as before her crowning.

Film editing

• “Avatar” Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
• “District 9” Julian Clarke
• “The Hurt Locker” Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
• “Inglourious Basterds” Sally Menke
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Joe Klotz

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: The Hurt Locker

Avatar will win through sheer momentum, although again I think "The Hurt Locker" is a superior film. Interesting to see "Precious" included here, since it's not a movie with a lot of action scenes that tend to drive the style of editing that is rewarded here. I think the dream sequences and flashbacks to rape are what put it onto this list.

Best Foreign Language Film

• “Ajami” Israel
• “The Milk of Sorrow (La Teta Asustada)” Peru
• “A Prophet (Un Prophète)” France
• “The Secret in Their Eyes (El Secreto de Sus Ojos)” Argentina
• “The White Ribbon (Das Weisse Band)” Germany

Gonna win: A Prophet

Of these nominees I've only seen "The White Ribbon." I can't believe the Academy would reward such a pretentious piece of drek, but I've heard a lot of good things about "Prophet." I think it's that or "Ajami."

Animated Feature Film

• 
• “Coraline” Henry Selick
• “Fantastic Mr. Fox” Wes Anderson
• “The Princess and the Frog” John Musker and Ron Clements
• “The Secret of Kells” Tomm Moore
• “Up” Pete Docter

Gonna win: Up

Oughtta win: Fantastic Mr. Fox

This is an easy prediction, since "Up" was the only animated film to also receive a Best Picture nomination (becoming only the second movie to do so, the other being "Beauty and the Beast" in 1991). Obviously, if voters felt strongly enough about "Up" to push it into this rare air, it's got the votes in its "home" category.

With five nominees now (instead of three), a lot of people were surprised "Ponyo" by Japanese anime master Hayao Miyazaki wasn't nominated, especially since he's a past winner in this category. Along with 99.99 percent of the world, I haven't seen "The Secret of Kells." For my money, I adored "Fantastic Mr. Fox" for its blend of child-like and adult themes, all wrapped in the hipster sensibility and eclectic soundtrack of Wes Anderson's movies.

Best Documentary Feature

• “Burma VJ” Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller
• “The Cove” Louie Psihoyos and Fisher Stevens
• “Food, Inc.” Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
• “The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers” Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
• “Which Way Home” Rebecca Cammisa

Gonna win: The Cove

Embarrassed to say I've only seen one of the nominees this year, "Food, Inc." "The Cove" won this award from the Indiana film critics, so I'll defer to the home squad.

Best Documentary Short

• “China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province” Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
• “The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner” Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
• “The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant” Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
• “Music by Prudence” Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
• “Rabbit à la Berlin” Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra

Gonna win: The Last Truck

Now you see what a challenge it is to make predictions in every category. I haven't seen any of these, and know nothing about them. Usually, the cynical view when it comes to the documentary category is to give the edge to whichever one is about the Holocaust. Lacking that option this year, I'll go with the one that has a timely theme about the country's economic malaise.

Short film (animated)

• “French Roast” Fabrice O. Joubert
• “Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty” Nicky Phelan and Darragh O’Connell
• “The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)” Javier Recio Gracia
• “Logorama” Nicolas Schmerkin
• “A Matter of Loaf and Death” Nick Park

Gonna win: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Oughtta win: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Thanks to a handy-dandy DVD screener, I've actually seen all the short narrative film nominees this year. This one is an easy prediction, since Nick Park, the Claymation king behind Wallace & Gromit, has won this award just about every time he's had a new movie come out. My other favorite from this group was the bold "Logorama," a world where everything and everyone is made up of corporate logos. I loved evil Ronald McDonald!

Short film (live action)

• “The Door” Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
• “Instead of Abracadabra” Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström
• “Kavi” Gregg Helvey
• “Miracle Fish” Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
• “The New Tenants” Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson

Gonna win: Kavi

Oughtta win: The New Tenants

The black, black comedy "The New Tenants" is my choice here, but it's probably too bleak for most Academy voters. So I'm predicting the uplifting "Kavi" to win. My second choice is the quirky "Instead of Abracadabra" about a lonely magician. I have to say this was a weak field this year, with "Miracle Fish" and "The Door" both underwhelming me.

Sound editing

• “Avatar” Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
• “The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson
• “Inglourious Basterds” Wylie Stateman
• “Star Trek” Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
• “Up” Michael Silvers and Tom Myers

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: The Hurt Locker

Sound mixing

• “Avatar” Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
• “The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
• “Inglourious Basterds” Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
• “Star Trek” Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
• “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: The Hurt Locker

The sound categories are perhaps the wonkiest ones, with few regular folks truly understanding what's involved in providing the non-dialogue and non-music portions of the soundtrack. These awards also tend to get swept up in the tide of enthusiasm for a particular film. Although there's been a fair amount of backlash against "Avatar," I again think that the sheer overpowering spectacle of it will compel people to vote it into the winner's circle. And again, I'll take "Hurt."

Visual Effects

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• “Avatar” Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
• “District 9” Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
• “Star Trek” Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: Avatar

Easy call here, although sometimes I think they ought to have a sliding scale for the film's budget. The catering budget on "Avatar" was probably more than the entire budget for "District 9."

Best Makeup

• “Il Divo” Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
• “Star Trek” Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
• “The Young Victoria” Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore

Gonna win: The Young Victoria

Kind of a weak year for this category. I guess every year can't have "Benjamin Button" -type of movies.

Best Song

• “Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
• “Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
• “Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36” Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
• “Take It All” from “Nine” Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
• “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett

Gonna win: The Weary Kind

Oughtta win: Almost There

Some nice, hummable tunes this year. I seem to recall the last time Randy Newman was a double nominee, he lost out on the award. Unfortunately, when the same film is nominated twice in a single category, the votes tend to cancel each other out. So although I loved the gospel-inspired energy of "Almost There," I think the Academy will go country this year. Interestingly, "Loin de Paname" is one of the few songs sung in a foreign language to be nominated in this category.

Best Musical Score

• “Avatar” James Horner
• “Fantastic Mr. Fox” Alexandre Desplat
• “The Hurt Locker” Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
• “Sherlock Holmes” Hans Zimmer
• “Up” Michael Giacchino

Gonna win: Up

Oughtta win: Fantastic Mr. Fox

This is one of those categories that tends to be determined by the orbital pull of the Best Picture winner. But probably not this year. Horner's a great composer, but his score was a lot of action punctuations and tonal chords without a coherent theme. Quick, hum the theme to "Avatar"! You can't do it. Hans Zimmer's score was one of the few things I really liked about "Sherlock Holmes." I really enjoyed the eclectic style of "Fantastic Mr. Fox," including Desplat's quirky banjo-heavy score. I think "Up" will win simply because it had the most melodic, instantly recognizable musical theme of all five nominees.

Best Screenplay (Adapted)

• “District 9” Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
• “An Education” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
• “In the Loop” Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
• “Up in the Air” Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

Gonna win: Up in the Air

Oughtta win: Up in the Air

"Up in the Air," which just a few months ago seemed like the runaway picture, has faded in the Oscar race. Other than its three acting awards, it only got three other nominations total. That indicates people weren't enthusiastic about it. But I think in the end Academy voters will recognize that this film lived and died by its script. It had a great personal story with a resonant backdrop about people losing their jobs.

Best Screenplay (Original)

• “The Hurt Locker” Written by Mark Boal
• “Inglourious Basterds” Written by Quentin Tarantino
• “The Messenger” Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
• “A Serious Man” Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• “Up” Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

Gonna win: Inglourious Basterds

Oughtta win: The Hurt Locker

Historically, the Oscars have used this category as a makeup award for a filmmaker or movie that didn't quite make it into the top tier of consideration. So my thought is they're going to reward Quentin Tarantino for doing that thing he does. Personally, I thought "Basterds" was occasionally brilliant, but often just plain boring. Great to see an animated film recognized for its writing. "The Hurt Locker" was number two on my Top 10 List, and is just an incredible film.

Best Director

• “Avatar” James Cameron
• “The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow
• “Inglourious Basterds” Quentin Tarantino
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels
• “Up in the Air” Jason Reitman

Gonna win: Kathryn Bigelow

Oughtta win: Kathryn Bigelow

With no clear front-runner this year, my guess is that voters are going to split the difference and give Kathryn Bigelow the director's award, and let James Cameron collect a producer's statue when "Avatar" wins Best Picture. I'm not part of the "Avatar" backlash -- I hated it so much, I put it 8th on my Top 10 List. But it's the sort of movie that's totally engaging while you're watching it, but after you walk out of the theater and start thinking about it, the cracks start to show. It's an incredible vision, but for me Bigelow delivered her masterpiece with "The Hurt Locker." A real capper on an under-noticed career. And she'd be the first woman to win, which never hurts.

Best Picture

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• “Avatar” James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
• “The Blind Side” Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove and Broderick Johnson, Producers
• “District 9” Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
• “An Education” Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
• “The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier and Greg Shapiro, Producers
• “Inglourious Basterds” Lawrence Bender, Producer
• “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
• “A Serious Man” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
• “Up” Jonas Rivera, Producer
• “Up in the Air” Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers

Gonna win: Avatar

Oughtta win: The Hurt Locker

The addition of five more Best Picture nominees is actually one of the least interesting things about this year's Oscar race.

The real intrigue is the change in voting procedures for best pic. I won't get too inside-baseball in my description,but suffice to say that instead of the winner being determined by the most number of votes, now the voters will rank all 10 nominees from highest to lowest. Then there's a series of eliminations based on how each film's votes were weighted.

To simplify, a film that gets a sizable number (though not a majority) of first-place votes, but many low-ranking votes, could end up losing to another movie that got more consistently high-ranking votes, but not as many top picks.

So "Avatar," which seems to be the front-runner, could end up losing if a large number of people rank it low on their list.

But, since "The Hurt Locker" was seen by so few people, I'm thinking a lot of Oscar voters aren't going to have seen it. So they might rank it middling or lower just to be safe. (And yes, I know the Academy members receive DVD screeners of the nominees. But the median age is pretty old, and they don't have time or willingness to watch everything.) Whereas I think pretty much everyone will have seen "Up in the Air" and ranked it high -- maybe not number one, but likely in the two-to-four range.

So if "Avatar" doesn't win, I'm going out on a limb and predicting "Up in the Air" to be this year's surprise winner. I still think "Avatar" will prevail, but that's my reading of the tea leaves that produces the unfortunate conclusion that "Hurt Locker" won't win.