Oscar picks and predictions

In a matter of weeks, this year's race for the Academy Awards has gone from an exciting wide-open contest to one of dull certainty.

"The King's Speech" has emerged as a strong frontrunner, and is setting up for a commanding sweep of the Oscars come Sunday. With "The Social Network," last fall's critical darling, fading quickly and "Speech" riding a box office wave almost unprecedented for a talkie historical film, the chance of any big surprises has been almost entirely drained from the proceedings.

I'm both heartened and dismayed by this development. On the one hand, there's no denying "The King's Speech" represents filmmaking for grown-ups -- the sort of mature, splendidly-crafted movie that critics complain there isn't enough of.

But "Speech" has a stale tang that's hard to deny, like a whiff of mothballs in a closet full of resplendent finery. A period piece about the trials and tribulations of the rich nobility, gilded with fine costumes and sets, and capped off by a conclusion that is as preordained as it is uplifting, "The King's Speech" seems to have been custom-made as Oscar bait.

I gave the film a very favorable review, while noting that it "lacks in novelty." But it did not make my Top 10 list for 2010, or receive an outpouring of adoration from critics.

Metacritic.com, which aggregates the opinions of the nation's highest-profile movie reviewers, lists only three who ranked "The King's Speech" as the best film of the year (compared with 22 for "The Social Network"), and it only ranked eighth in terms of total appearances on Top 10 lists.

One benefit of the "Speech" tidal wave: It makes prognosticating this year's Oscars a much easier affair.

Here then are my predictions of the winners, as well as my pick of who should win. I'll also highlight what I think are the Academy's snubs and flubs, by indicating an unworthy nominee and more deserving one.

BEST PICTURE

For reasons just outlined, "The King's Speech" will win, period. It has swept all the preliminary awards, with the exception of the Golden Globes, which are a joke. "The Social Network" has the only chance of an upset, however slim.

The list of 10 nominees is a mostly solid one, and I was pleased to see the tiny "Winter's Bone" get a nod. Though I found "Black Swan" to be pretentious drek.

Prediction: "The King's Speech"
Pick: "The Social Network"
Snubs & flubs: "Blue Valentine" instead of "Black Swan"

BEST DIRECTOR

This category is most notable for the absence of Christopher Nolan, whose "Inception" was the most original and audacious film of 2010. David Fincher of "Network" was considered a shoo-in, but Tom Hooper of "Speech" won the Director's Guild award, which nearly always predicts the winner.

Nolan's snub is vexing, but personally I thought Debra Granik of "Winter's Bone" had the finest touch behind the camera last year, and she also wasn't nominated.

Prediction: Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"
Pick: David Fincher, "The Social Network"
Snubs & flubs: Debra Granik, "Winter's Bone" for Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"

BEST ACTRESS

It's between Annette Bening for "The Kids Are All Right" and Natalie Portman for "Black Swan." Despite my distaste for "Swan," Portman's strong, haunting performance is the only thing that gave that film any life. And she won the Screen Actors Guild award, a strong push.

Personally, I deemed Bening even better in the little-seen "Mother and Child." But 20-year-old Jennifer Lawrence commanded the screen in "Winter's Bone," eclipsing them both.

Prediction: Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Pick: Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
Snubs & flubs: No complaints -- a solid list in an underwhelming year for lead female roles.

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, a nominee for "True Grit," was the winner last year because of the widespread feeling "it was his time." The same can be said this go-round for Colin Firth, who does give a magnificent, layered turn as the arrogant but self-doubting monarch in "The King's Speech."

For my money, James Franco gave the performance of the year -- he was emotionally vulnerable in a way few actors ever dare to expose themselves.

Tough to knock anybody off this list, though the absence of Ryan Gosling when his "Blue Valentine" partner Michelle Williams was nominated grates.

Prediction: Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
Pick: James Franco, "127 Hours"
Snubs & flubs: Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine" for Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nice to see some industry love for Melissa Leo, a fine character actress who broke out with "Frozen River" a couple years ago. Helena Bonham Carter was competent in a role of few challenges, while Dianne Wiest had a knockout scene in "Rabbit Hole."

Many think Hailee Steinfeld deserved a leading actress nomination for "True Grit" ... I don't. She was terrific, but it's a movie about Rooster Cogburn.

Prediction: Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
Pick: Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"
Snubs & flubs: Dianne Wiest, "Rabbit Hole" for Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Geoffrey Rush of "The King's Speech" seemed to have this category sewed up, but Christian Bale won the SAG award for "The Fighter." And it's a role unlike anything he's done before in his career, playing a guy who's a total trainwreck.

But I thought John Hawkes, a surprise nominee for "Winter's Bone," was better.

"Get Low" was touted as the Robert Duvall show, but Bill Murray stole scenes prodigiously.

Prediction: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
Pick: John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"
Snubs & flubs: Bill Murray, "Get Low" for Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Christopher Nolan's best chance to get a golden statue for "Inception" will be in the screenplay category, traditionally a place for consolation prizes. If "The King's Speech" steamrolls, though, he may get shut out. The Writers Guild went for Nolan, but I fear it's not enough.

"Another Year" is a minor Mike Leigh work,while "Blue Valentine" deserved its status as Sundance darling.

Prediction: David Seidler, "The King's Speech"
Pick: Christopher Nolan, "Inception"
Snubs & flubs: "Blue Valentine" for "Another Year"

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This is the one category "The Social Network" seems to have locked up. TV guy Aaron Sorkin wrote a masterful script blending truth, fiction and social commentary.

"Toy Story 3" got an unexpected script nod, but if you want to honor animated films, start with the best of 2010, "How to Train Your Dragon."

Prediction: Aaron Sorkin, "The Social Network"
Pick: Aaron Sorkin, "The Social Network"
Snubs & flubs: "How to Train Your Dragon" for "Toy Story 3"

BEST ANIMATED FILM

With other nods for Best Pic and screenplay, "Toy Story 3" is a mortal lock. "How to Train Your Dragon" was fresher and poignant.

The arbitrary decision to limit the nominees to three shut out the deserving "Tangled." I agree that neither "Megamind" or "Despicable Me" are worthy, but what's wrong with having four nominees?

Prediction: "Toy Story 3"
Pick: "How to Train Your Dragon"
Snubs & flubs: "Tangled"

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Prediction: "Waste Land"
Pick: "Exit Through the Gift Shop"
Snubs & flubs: "Freedom Riders" for "Gasland"

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Prediction: "Strangers No More"

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Prediction: "Incendies"
Pick: "Biutiful"
Snubs & flubs: "Lebanon" for "Outside the Law"

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Prediction: "The King's Speech"
Pick: "True Grit"
Snubs & flubs: "Winter's Bone" for "The Social Network"

MAKEUP

Prediction: "Barney's Version"

ART DIRECTION

Prediction: "The King's Speech"
Pick: "Alice in Wonderland"

COSTUME DESIGN

Prediction: "The King's Speech"
Pick: "Alice in Wonderland"


ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Prediction: "Day & Night"
Pick: "Madagascar, a Journey Diary"

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

Prediction: "Na Wewe"
Pick: "God of Love"

FILM EDITING

Prediction: "The King's Speech"
Pick: "127 Hours"
Snubs & flubs: "Inception" for "Black Swan"

SOUND MIXING

Prediction: "The King's Speech"
Pick: "Inception"

SOUND EDITING

Prediction: "Inception"
Pick: "Inception"

ORIGINAL SONG

Prediction: "We Belong Together" by Randy Newman, "Toy Story 3"
Pick: "If I Rise," A.R. Rahman, Dido and Rollo Armstrong, "127 Hours"

ORIGINAL SCORE

Prediction: "The King's Speech" by Alexandre Desplat
Pick: "How to Train Your Dragon" by John Powell

Oscar nomination reaction

The 2010 Academy Awards nomination surprised and largely pleased me. I was deathly afraid that two of my favorites, "127 Hours" and "Winter's Bone," would not get love from the Academy because neither managed to light much of a fire at the box office.

I was especially pleased to see acting nominations for Jennifer Lawrence and John Hawkes from "Bone" -- two of the best performances I saw this year. James Franco (who's co-hosting the ceremony Feb. 27) got a nomination for his performance in "127 Hours," but he has a much higher profile than the other two.

"The King's Speech" led the field with 12 nominations, an indication of a strong swell of support from the Academy's older voters. Should it now be the favorite for Best Picture? I still think "The Social Network" is tops.

A lot of dap for "Toy Story 3," including becoming the third animated feature to get a Best Pic nod, plus a screenplay nominations. I still think "How to Train Your Dragon" and "Tangled" are better films.

Films that did better than predicted: "Rabbit Hole," "Winter's Bone," "Toy Story 3," "The Kids Are All Right," "The Fighter," "Biutiful" (a surprise -- and deserved -- nom for Javier Bardem).

Films that did worse: "Inception" (no Christopher Nolan directing nomination), "Never Let Me Go" (totally shut out), "Blue Valentine," "Tangled."

Snubs: No nod for Julianne Moore from "The Kids Are All Right"? Co-stars Mark Ruffalo and Annette Bening both got nominations, and her performance was no less compelling.

Ryan Gosling, in one of the most nuanced roles of the year in "Blue Valentine," got the shaft. Co-star Michelle Williams did get a nod, though. This is a movie built around two performances, and to recognize only one of them feel strange and bitter.

No Diane Wiest nod for "Rabbit Hole," though not surprising. It's a small but meaty role in a film few people have seen. Aaron Eckhart also got snubbed, which is strange in the same way as "Blue Valentine," in that's a movie about a relationship between two people.

A lack of a directing nod for Christopher Nolan is vexing. Here was one of the most truly original visions of the year, and to not recognize the man behind it strikes me as bizarre and cruel. Maybe voters felt a screenwriting nomination was sufficient. It wasn't.

Another acting nomination I wasn't really expecting but would have liked to see was Andrew Garfield for "The Social Network." Armie Hammer was amusing as the Winklevi, but it's just not an Oscar-caliber role or performance.

Although my prediction of a youth movement in the acting nominations proved largely true, with by my count nine of the 20 nods going to actors under the age of 40.

The Overrated: "The King's Speech" is a solid, well-made film, but about as original as an Andy Warhol soup can print. I think Film Yapper Nick Rogers said it best in his Facebook post: "Two great performances from actors who need neither good direction nor scripts to excel."

I liked "Toy Story 3," but c'mon. It was the third-go round with some very familiar characters and settings. You can't tell me certain parts of the plot felt like they were on auto-pilot (the escape from daycare, etc.). So a screenplay nod here seems really misplaced.

I know it's a nice-looking film, but there's just something wrong with the world when "Alice in Wonderland" earns more Academy Award nominations than "Blue Valentine," "The American," "Lebanon," "Never Let Me Go" and "Tangled" combined.

And, thank God, we avoided a Mila Kunis nomination for "Black Swan." I'm not a fan of that film, but Kunis was borderline horrible in it, and I couldn't believe she generated talk about a nod. No Milli Vanilli Moment for these Oscars.

Here's the complete list:

Best motion picture of the year

     Black Swan
     The Fighter
     Inception
     The Kids Are All Right
     The King's Speech
     127 Hours
     The Social Network
     Toy Story 3
     True Grit
     Winter's Bone

Performance by an actor in a leading role

     Javier Bardem in "Biutiful"
     Jeff Bridges in "True Grit"
     Jesse Eisenberg in "The Social Network"
     Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"
     James Franco in "127 Hours"


Performance by an actor in a supporting role

     Christian Bale in "The Fighter"
     John Hawkes in "Winter's Bone"
     Jeremy Renner in "The Town"
     Mark Ruffalo in "The Kids Are All Right"
     Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech"


Performance by an actress in a leading role

     Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right"
     Nicole Kidman in "Rabbit Hole"
     Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter's Bone"
     Natalie Portman in "Black Swan"
     Michelle Williams in "Blue Valentine"


Performance by an actress in a supporting role

     Amy Adams in "The Fighter"
     Helena Bonham Carter in "The King's Speech"
     Melissa Leo in "The Fighter"
     Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit"
     Jacki Weaver in "Animal Kingdom"

Best animated feature film of the year

     How to Train Your Dragon
     The Illusionist
     Toy Story 3


Art Direction

     Alice in Wonderland (Walt Disney), Robert Stromberg (Production Design), Karen O'Hara (Set Decoration)
     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.), Stuart Craig (Production Design), Stephenie McMillan (Set Decoration)
     Inception (Warner Bros.), Guy Hendrix Dyas (Production Design), Larry Dias and Doug Mowat (Set Decoration)/span>
     The King's Speech (Paramount), Eve Stewart (Production Design), Judy Farr (Set Decoration)
     True Grit (Paramount), Jess Gonchor (Production Design), Nancy Haigh (Set Decoration)


Achievement in Cinematography

     Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Matthew Libatique
     Inception (Warner Bros.) Wally Pfister
     The King's Speech (The Weinstein Company) Danny Cohen
     The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Jeff Cronenweth
     True Grit (Paramount) Roger Deakins


Achievement in costume design

     Alice in Wonderland (Walt Disney) Colleen Atwood
     I Am Love (Magnolia Pictures) Antonella Cannarozzi
     The King's Speech (The Weinstein Company) Jenny Beavan
     The Tempest (Miramax) Sandy Powell
     True Grit (Paramount) Mary Zophres


Achievement in directing

     Black Swan (Fox Searchlight), Darren Aronofsky
     The Fighter (Paramount), David O. Russell
     The King's Speech (The Weinstein Company), Tom Hooper
     The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing), David Fincher
     True Grit (Paramount), Joel Coen and Ethan Coen


Best Documentary Feature

     Exit through the Gift Shop (Producers Distribution Agency) Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz A Paranoid Pictures Production
     Gasland Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic A Gasland Production
     Inside Job (Sony Pictures Classics) Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs A Representational Pictures Production
     Restrepo (National Geographic Entertainment) Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger An Outpost Films Production
     Waste Land Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley (Arthouse Films) An Almega Projects Production


Best documentary short subject

     Killing in the Name
     Poster Girl    
Strangers No More
     Sun Come Up
     The Warriors of Qiugang


Achievement in film editing

     Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Andrew Weisblum
     The Fighter Paramount Pamela Martin
     The King's Speech (The Weinstein Company) Tariq Anwar
     127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) Jon Harris
     The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter

Best foreign language film of the year

     Biutiful Mexico
     Dogtooth Greece
     In a Better World Denmark
     Incendies Canada
     Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi) Algeria


Achievement in makeup

     Achievement in makeup (Sony Pictures Classics) Adrien Morot
     The Way Back (Newmarket Films in association with Wrekin Hill Entertainment and Image Entertainment) Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
     The Wolfman (Universal) Rick Baker and Dave Elsey


Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

     How to Train Your Dragon (Paramount) John Powell
     Inception (Warner Bros.) Hans Zimmer
     The King's Speech (The Weinstein Company) Alexandre Desplat
     127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) A.R. Rahman
     The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross


Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

     Coming Home from Country Strong (Sony Pictures Releasing (Screen Gems)) Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
     I See the Light from Tangled (Walt Disney) Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
     If I Rise from 127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
     We Belong Together from Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney) Music and Lyric by Randy Newman


Best animated short film

     Day & Night (Walt Disney) A Pixar Animation Studios Production Teddy Newton
     The Gruffalo A Magic Light Pictures Production Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
     Let's Pollute A Geefwee Boedoe Production Geefwee Boedoe
     The Lost Thing (Nick Batzias for Madman Entertainment) A Passion Pictures Australia Production Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
     Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary) A Sacrebleu Production Bastien Dubois


Best live action short film

     The Confession (National Film and Television School) A National Film and Television School Production Tanel Toom
     The Crush (Network Ireland Television) A Purdy Pictures Production Michael Creagh
     God of Love A Luke Matheny Production Luke Matheny
     Na Wewe (Premium Films) A CUT! Production Ivan Goldschmidt
     Wish 143 A Swing and Shift Films/Union Pictures Production Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite


Achievement in sound editing

     Inception (Warner Bros.) Richard King
     Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney) Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
     Tron: Legacy (Walt Disney) Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
     True Grit (Paramount) Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
     Unstoppable (20th Century Fox) Mark P. Stoeckinger


Achievement in sound mixing

     Inception (Warner Bros.) Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
     The King's Speech (The Weinstein Company) Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
     Salt (Sony Pictures Releasing) Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
     The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
     True Grit (Paramount) Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland


Achievement in visual effects

     Alice in Wonderland (Walt Disney) Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.) Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
     Hereafter (Warner Bros.) Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell
     Inception (Warner Bros.) Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
     Iron Man 2 (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment, Distributed by Paramount) Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick


Adapted screenplay

     127 Hours (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
     The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing), Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
     Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Michael Arndt. Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
     True Grit (Paramount), Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
     Winter's Bone (Roadside Attractions), Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini


Original screenplay

     Another Year (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Mike Leigh
     The Fighter (Paramount), Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson. Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
     Inception (Warner Bros.), Written by Christopher Nolan
     The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features), Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
     The King's Speech

Review: "The King's Speech"

Everybody's bad at something.

Perhaps you can't shoot a basketball, or your spelling is atrocious. I for one have a terrible memory for names. What is universal about these myriad faults is that we all carefully protect our shortcomings by keeping them private, or finding a way to work around them.

(True fact: I keep a chart of my street block so I know what to call neighbors.)

But what if the one thing you were terrible at also happened to be the sole criteria by which everyone judged you? If your inescapable duty was confounded by your greatest disability?

Such was the fate of King George VI of England, who suffered from a crippling stutter. He was helped by an unconventional Australian speech therapist, and was able to serve as an inspiration to his people during the dark days of World War II.

"The King's Speech," the film about his struggle, is straight out of the school of Inspirational Tales from History. What it lacks in novelty it makes up for in executing this type of movie-making about as well as it can be done.

Colin Firth as the king and Geoffrey Rush as his therapist offer a pair of tremendous performances, in roles that pop off the screen notwithstanding the constraints of a slightly staid screenplay (by David Seidler).

Despite being a loving father and husband, dedicated Navy officer and utterly loyal to the monarchy and his nation, Prince Albert (as he was known before his coronation) was belittled by his family simply because he stammered. Public speeches were embarrassing, halting disasters, both for Albert and the people who had to listen to them.

His father (a brief but memorable appearance by Michael Gambon) regrets the new requirements technology forces upon the monarchy, like his annual Christmas speeches over the radio.

"Now we must invade our subjects' home and ingratiate ourselves," the king complains. "We have become actors!"

The second in line for the throne, Albert was safely shunted to minor appearances where he could keep a low profile, which suited him just fine.

It might never have mattered, until his brother Edward (Guy Pearce), after assuming the crown in 1936, abdicated a few months later to marry an American divorcé. It's interesting to see the different portrayals of this event: Americans regard it as a grand romantic gesture, while Albert and his family see it as foolish and mortifying.

At the prodding of his wife (Helena Bonham Carter), the soon-to-be-king seeks help from Lionel Logue (Rush), whose methods are unorthodox, to say the least. He demands the prince come to his office, rather than calling at the palace. On his home turf, Lionel insists they treat each other as equals -- even presuming to call the prince "Bertie," a familial nickname.

There are also strange breathing exercises, tongue twisters, singing his words and, most memorably, spewing a string of expletives that in of itself earned the film an R rating. (It probably would've gotten a G otherwise.)

Lionel's lessons intensify as Albert takes up the crown -- even burrowing into his personal life. It is Lionel's professional opinion that no child is born a stutterer: Some kind of trauma compels them to be afraid of their own voice.

Firth is by turns droll, arrogant and sensitive as Albert/George -- the sort of pampered son who has more grit and wry humor than anyone suspects. Asked by his daughter what Hitler is shouting about in a newsreel, there's no hesitation to his comeback: "I don't know. But he seems to be saying it rather well."

Director Tom Hooper, who helmed last year's excellent "The Damned United," recognizes the material for what it is and emphasizes its obvious strengths. "The King's Speech" knows exactly how to get its point across.

3.5 stars out of four