SAG awards are Oscar harbinger

A week ago, I wrote in this space assessing how much the Golden Globes are an indicator of the Academy Awards. Short version: Not very much.

Last night's Screen Actors Guild Awards, though are different. Unlike the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which is basically a phantom organization, the SAG is the powerful actors union. Like the Producers Guild, Directors Guild and Writers Guild, these groups' awards are notable because of the overlap with Academy voters.

People who are members of one of these guilds are often (though certainly not always) also voting members of the Academy. The SAG awards are especially notable because actors make up the largest voting bloc of the Academy.

So as the guild awards go, so often go the Oscars.

There wasn't too much surprise in last night's awards: Jeff Bridges won Best Actor for "Crazy Heart," Christoph Waltz took supporting actor for "Inglourious Basterds," Mo'Nique won supporting actress for "Precious."

At this point, those three should be considered heavy favorites to win the Oscar. Colin Firth didn't get a lot of traction for "A Single Man," mainly because few people saw it. And everyone loves George Clooney in "Up in the Air," but I think there's a sense floating around that he was playing a version of himself -- or at least his star persona.

Whereas Oscar voters love to award actors (actresses, not so much) lifetime achievement awards. So, often a respected actor will take home the statue for a movie most reasonable people would agree is not their best work. Thus, Paul Newman finally won for "The Color of Money" and Al Pacino for "Scent of a Woman" -- fine movies and fine performances, but hardly the pinnacle of their careers.

Essentially, there's a movement underway pushing the idea that it's Jeff Bridges' time. I don't mind, since in this case I think "Crazy Heart" does represent some of his finest work.

The real surprise was Sandra Bullock winning Best Actress for "The Blind Side." Her SAG win is starting me to changing my mind that she can't win the Oscar.

Unlike the Globes, the SAG awards and Oscars don't split up the acting category into dramas and comedies/musicals. So the fact that Bullock won over award favorite Meryl Streep is an indication of genuine respect for Bullock's performance. I think we could dismiss her Globe win to her film's excellent box office performance -- the Globes are the epitome of favoring the most popular over the best films. Not SAG.

The other big contender, Carey Mulligan, appears to be sliding. Not very many people saw "An Education," which was a critical darling. And given Mulligan's youth and inexperience -- "An Education" represents her first starring role -- there may be a willingness to view an Oscar nomination as its own reward for a rising star. Even Hilary Swank, who seemed to come out of nowhere a decade ago to win for "Boys Don't Cry," had headlined a couple of small movies prior to that.

This is one occasion where it helps to be the established actress in her 40s rather than the ingenue in her early 20s.

Personally, I still think Streep gave the best performance of the year. But it's starting to look more and more like Bullock's turn in "The Blind Side" has come out of nowhere to take the lead.

Review: "The Blind Side"

I suspect that "The Blind Side" has been Hollywooded up. But the result is such a genuinely touching and sincere movie, audiences won't mind.

The film is based on a football book by Michael Lewis that mostly concerned itself with the evolution of the left tackle into one of the key player positions in the modern NFL. Writer/director John Lee Hancock -- who made the excellent baseball movie "The Rookie" -- uses Lewis' source material for sentiment rather than smash mouth action.

"Blind Side" tells the true story (with a few details changed) of Michael Oher, a black street kid who was taken in by a well-to-do white Memphis family. Through their help and his own perseverance, he gets his life in order, starts to make decent grades at school, and draws national attention for his raw prowess on the football field.

The Touhy clan is one of those Southern families where the mother hen, Leigh Anne, rules the roost. She's played with spit and verve by Sandra Bullock. When she spots her son's gargantuan schoolmate walking in the freezing night rain, she insists that her husband Sean (Tim McGraw) pull over and they put him up for the night on their couch.

As sure as sunshine, the boy everyone calls "Big Mike" is soon living with them, and eventually becomes part of the family. Michael -- who speaks few words, but says enough to convey that he doesn't like being called "Big Mike" -- is played by Quinton Aaron in an understated but emotionally rich performance.

Michael has been abandoned by virtually every person he's ever known; his father was murdered, and his mother is a vagabond drug addict. So when he's brought into this supportive environment where the worst misbehavior consists of eating Thanksgiving dinner in front of the TV, it seems strange and disquieting to him.

Michael's relationship with young S.J. Touhy is a hoot, with Jae Head stealing scenes left and right as the tiny brother.

At one point the Touhys hire a tutor named Miss Sue (Kathy Bates) to help Michael with his grades, and she confesses to them that she's a Democrat. "Who'd have thought we'd have a black son before we knew a Democrat?" Sean ponders. It's a humorous comment on how people, even good ones, reflexively insulate themselves from those who are different from them.

The football stuff comes fairly late in the movie's game. Although the coach of the school -- which is private, Christian and lily-white -- had pushed to enroll Michael, he must work until his grades are good enough to play.

Despite Michael's mammoth size and natural athletic ability, he struggles at first on the gridiron. The coach (Ray McKinnon) dubs him a marshmallow. But Leigh Anne knows that the man-child's instincts are protective rather than aggressive. When Michael is moved to left tackle, whose job is to guard the quarterback's blind side, he soon becomes an unstoppable force that draws the attention of college coaches across the nation.

We know the story turns out happily, since the real Michael Oher was drafted in the NFL's first round this past summer and can be seen starting for the Baltimore Ravens on any given Sunday.

But knowing the outcome doesn't diminish the emotional punch. Like drawing up a football play, it's the execution that really matters, and "The Blind Side" snaps to smartly.

3 stars